Scenario-based planning for urban sustainability: Envisioning an ecological city in Shandiz, Iran by 2032

Urban sustainability in developing countries is often hindered by infrastructural limitations and the complexity of environmental uncertainties. This study applies scenario-based planning to explore future pathways for the development of an ecological city in Shandiz, Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran, by 2032. Following a six-step scenario planning framework, the research employed a mixed-methods approach, including expert questionnaires to identify and prioritize key drivers, and semi-structured interviews using saturation theory to construct scenario logics. The analysis yielded three distinct future scenarios: the Ideal City (sustainable and inclusive development), the Command City (state-driven but fragile planning), and the Ruined City (unsustainable and fragmented growth). Strategies were formulated to guide urban stakeholders toward realizing the most desirable future. The study contributes to the field of urban futures by demonstrating how participatory scenario planning can support informed decision-making under uncertainty and promote sustainable urban transitions.