Ecosystem health challenges: modeling the quality of the habitat and its effect on the survival status of Laristan mouflon (Ovis orientalis laristanica) species in the hunting prohibition area of Kuh Hava-Tang Khor based on the maximum entropy model

The health of natural ecosystems is an important indicator for assessing the health of both the environment and human. The present descriptive-analytical study aimed to model habitat quality and its impact on the survival status of the Laristan mouflon (Ovis orientalis laristanica) species in the Hunting prohibition area of Kuh Hava-Tang Khor, using the maximum entropy model in 2022. The presence of this species was recorded at 87 locations using GPS. Four groups of environmental variables were identified as influential in determining habitat suitability: climatic factors (temperature, humidity, precipitation), vegetation cover (density), topographical factors (elevation, slope rate, and slope direction), and human factors (distance from water sources and roads). Bioclimatic variables were generated using R software, and bioclimatic maps were produced through the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method in ArcGIS 10.3. Vegetation density was calculated using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The ROC index was used to validate the model results. The results showed that the NDVI value for areas with vegetation was 0.3851, while for areas without vegetation, it was −0.4783. Slope classes ranging from 0 to 5.2 degrees and elevations between 448 and 596 m covered the largest area. The ROC value of 0.84 indicates a high accuracy of the model in estimating the presence points of the target species. Vegetation cover and distance from water sources were identified as the most significant components in the species’ distribution, accounting for 17.08% and 13.84% of the absolute effects, respectively. The Jackknife diagram revealed that vegetation cover, slope, and distance from water sources contributed 65%, 57%, and 48% of the total variance, respectively, playing a primary role in predicting habitat suitability. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate the potential of the maximum entropy model in analyzing habitat quality and its impact on the survival status of Laristan mouflon in the hunting prohibition area of Kuh Hava-Tang Khor.