转移未成年毒品犯会减少再犯吗？澳大利亚对大麻发出警告

IF 4.4 2区医学 Q1 SUBSTANCE ABUSE

International Journal of Drug Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-15 DOI:10.1016/j.drugpo.2025.105008

Anaïs Henneguelle , Don Weatherburn

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的观察将未成年毒品犯从刑事检控中转移是否会降低他们再次犯罪的风险。方法我们利用2000年在新南威尔士州（澳大利亚）实施的一项分阶段推出的政策，该政策赋予警察自由裁量权，对被发现使用和/或拥有大麻的成年人进行正式警告，而不是指控。我们使用政策实施时间的外生变化作为2SLS（线性概率模型）分析的工具，以确定大麻警告对再犯风险的影响。进行了一系列检查，以检验通过线性概率模型获得的结果的稳健性。结果对大麻发出警告，而不是因持有大麻而被起诉，平均可使5年后的再犯率降低约16个百分点。对于那些30岁以下的人，那些以前从未入狱的人，以及那些已经有过一次警告的人来说，这种影响更大。结论对轻微毒品犯罪采取替代起诉更有可能加强而不是减少公共安全。

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Does diverting minor drug offenders reduce recidivism? Cannabis cautioning in Australia

Aim

To see whether diversion of minor drug offenders from criminal prosecution reduces the risk of further offending.

Methods

We exploit the staged roll-out of a policy implemented in the State of New South Wales (Australia) in 2000, which gave police the discretion to formally caution rather than charge adults detected for use and/or possession of cannabis. We use the exogenous variation in the timing of the policy implementation as an instrument in a 2SLS (linear probability model) analysis to identify the effect of cannabis cautioning on risk of re-offending. A series of checks are carried out to test the robustness of the findings obtained via the linear probability model.

Results

Being given a cannabis caution rather than being prosecuted for cannabis possession reduces recidivism at 5 years by about 16 percentage points, on average. The effects are larger for those under the age of 30, those who have never previously been imprisoned, and those who have already had one caution.

Conclusions

The adoption of alternatives to prosecution for minor drug offences is more likely to enhance public safety rather than reduce it.

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来源期刊

International Journal of Drug Policy SUBSTANCE ABUSE-

CiteScore

7.80

自引率

11.40%

发文量

307

审稿时长

62 days

期刊介绍： The International Journal of Drug Policy provides a forum for the dissemination of current research, reviews, debate, and critical analysis on drug use and drug policy in a global context. It seeks to publish material on the social, political, legal, and health contexts of psychoactive substance use, both licit and illicit. The journal is particularly concerned to explore the effects of drug policy and practice on drug-using behaviour and its health and social consequences. It is the policy of the journal to represent a wide range of material on drug-related matters from around the world.