Storm surge dynamics in Nuevo Gulf, Argentina: Observational analysis and conceptual modeling

This study analyzed tide gauge records from 2010 to 2023 in Puerto Madryn, Nuevo Gulf, Argentine Patagonia, to identify and characterize positive storm surge events and examine associated synoptic atmospheric patterns. A positive storm surge event was defined as a sea level (after removing the tidal signal) exceeding the 99th percentile (>0.66 m) and remaining above the 95th percentile (0.39 m) for at least 6 h. A total of 167 events were identified, with a maximum peak of 1.46 m and an average duration of 14.7 h. Wind analysis at surge peaks showed a notable increase in southerly wind frequency compared to the general wind pattern. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of surface atmospheric pressure fields during surge peaks revealed that the first three components explained 68 %, 7 %, and 5 % of the variance, respectively, highlighting the dominant atmospheric patterns during these events. A common pattern identified was the predominance of southwesterly winds along the Patagonian continental shelf. Based on these findings, a conceptual model to describe storm surge dynamics in Nuevo Gulf was proposed.