Multidimensional Evaluation and Driving Mechanism of Water Resource Carrying Capacity in China’s Central Plains Urban Agglomeration

It is vital for regional development planning to accurately analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and the major influencing factors of the water resource carrying capacity (WRCC). We established a triaxial WRCC evaluation framework (“pressure–support”, “destructiveness–resistance”, “degradation–promotion”) for the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA), evaluated the CPUA’s WRCC through the efficient Fourier amplitude sensitivity test and gray relational analysis-TOPSIS model, and quantified its spatial–temporal patterns by the standard deviation ellipse trajectory analysis. The dominant obstacles to WRCC enhancement were diagnosed using the obstacle degree model, while the spatial validity of the indicator system was rigorously verified through multiscale geographic-weighted regression with bandwidth optimization. The study found the following: (1) high-WRCC cities predominantly cluster along major transportation corridors and the Yellow River basin. Meanwhile, post-2014 completion of the South-North Water Diversion Project significantly enhanced WRCC in beneficiary cities. (2) Intercity WRCC disparities in CPUA are gradually narrowing, correlating strongly with CPUA’s coordinated development initiatives. (3) The WRCC gravity center exhibits a distinct counterclockwise migration trajectory over two decades that aligns temporally with both China’s Western Development Strategy phases and key water diversion milestones. (4) The precipitation per unit area and water supply investment are the primary WRCC determinants in CPUA.