Modeling the Impact of Antimicrobial Resistance on Medical Preparedness and Response for a Nuclear or Radiological Public Health Emergency.

Objective: Antimicrobial resistant infections are expected to increase the rate of antibiotic treatment failure in patients during a mass casualty incident. We aim to examine the potential impact of rising antimicrobial resistance (AMR) on medical preparedness and response to a nuclear detonation in the United States (U.S.) using a model to estimate the number of casualties with secondary bacterial infections overlaid with real-world data on the burden of antibiotic-resistant pathogens.

Methods: The population of injured individuals needing treatment was estimated from a simulation involving a 100-kiloton nuclear detonation in a major U.S. metropolitan area. Contemporary antibiotic resistance rates for eight key bacterial pathogens were derived from the SENTRY Microbiology Visualization Platform.

Results: Our model estimated that up to 65% of the casualties could be at risk to develop a secondary bacterial infection requiring antibiotic treatment which, when combined with the increasing burden of AMR in U.S., could result in up to one third of those patients who are injured and infected being at risk for treatment failure due to antibiotic resistance.

Conclusions: The burden of AMR on the emergency response to a mass casualty incident, as described, could be a significant hinderance to efforts to treat infections and protect lives.