通过风数据同化增强核应急响应：基于粒子滤波的方法与地形修正高斯羽流模型相结合

IF 3.2 3区工程技术 Q1 NUCLEAR SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY

Progress in Nuclear Energy Pub Date : 2025-09-09 DOI:10.1016/j.pnucene.2025.106024

Maryna Batur , Reha Metin Alkan , Himmet Karaman

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了一种基于粒子滤波（PF）的实时风速预测模型与地形修正高斯羽流模型（TM-GPM）相结合的核事故后放射性核素弥散估计新方法。通过对配备4个VVER-1200压水反应堆的阿库尤核电站（NPP）的案例研究，提出的框架动态调整风输入和分散预测，并根据实测气象数据进行验证。采用多种统计技术（RMSE、MAE、R2和相关系数）对PF模型进行交叉验证，获得较高的准确性（R2 = 0.988）。结果表明，地形和降水如何显著影响放射性核素的扩散和沉积。这种综合方法为核反应堆附近的应急规划和公共卫生风险评估提供了改进的预测能力。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Enhancing nuclear emergency response through wind data assimilation: a particle filter-based approach combined with terrain-modified Gaussian plume model

This study presents a novel approach for enhancing radionuclide dispersion estimation following nuclear accidents by integrating a Particle Filtering (PF)-based real-time wind speed prediction model with a terrain-modified Gaussian Plume Model (TM-GPM). Using the case study of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant (NPP), equipped with four VVER-1200 pressurized water reactors (PWRs), the proposed framework dynamically adjusts wind inputs and dispersion predictions, validated against measured meteorological data. The PF model was cross-validated using multiple statistical techniques (RMSE, MAE, R², and correlation coefficient), achieving high accuracy (R² = 0.988). The results demonstrate how terrain and precipitation significantly affect the dispersion and deposition of radionuclides. This integrated approach offers improved predictive capability for emergency response planning and public health risk assessment near nuclear reactors.

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来源期刊

Progress in Nuclear Energy 工程技术-核科学技术

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

14.80%

发文量

331

审稿时长

3.5 months

期刊介绍： Progress in Nuclear Energy is an international review journal covering all aspects of nuclear science and engineering. In keeping with the maturity of nuclear power, articles on safety, siting and environmental problems are encouraged, as are those associated with economics and fuel management. However, basic physics and engineering will remain an important aspect of the editorial policy. Articles published are either of a review nature or present new material in more depth. They are aimed at researchers and technically-oriented managers working in the nuclear energy field. Please note the following: 1) PNE seeks high quality research papers which are medium to long in length. Short research papers should be submitted to the journal Annals in Nuclear Energy. 2) PNE reserves the right to reject papers which are based solely on routine application of computer codes used to produce reactor designs or explain existing reactor phenomena. Such papers, although worthy, are best left as laboratory reports whereas Progress in Nuclear Energy seeks papers of originality, which are archival in nature, in the fields of mathematical and experimental nuclear technology, including fission, fusion (blanket physics, radiation damage), safety, materials aspects, economics, etc. 3) Review papers, which may occasionally be invited, are particularly sought by the journal in these fields.