Household decision dynamics and food insecurity: evidence from the one-cow-per-poor-family programme in Rwanda.

Rwanda, like many African countries, endeavours to overcome the food insecurity challenge with different initiatives. One such initiative is the 'one-cow-per-poor-family' programme known as the 'Girinka Programme'. With the introduction of every cow into the household, there is a resultant change in household bio-economics. Subsequently, some decisions must be made regarding either the consumption or the selling of milk, calves or manure. This study investigates the effect of household decision dynamics within the framework of this programme on food insecurity in Rwanda. The micro-econometrics analytical approach is adopted in the empirical strategy using the household data from the 'Girinka Programme' in an ordered probit model. A total of 3000 households were surveyed, and data were collected across 20 districts in Rwanda in 2016 and 2017 and used in the empirical estimations. Our findings affirm the a priori expectation that households' food insecurity is reduced with additional income sources. Besides, the results indicate that the households acquired and/or used more land by participating in the programme through access to cow's manure and income earned either by selling the heifer or milk, than before the programme. Also, we find that households with a higher number of calves are more food-secure. The estimations indicate that there is heterogeneity in the level of food insecurity across the districts owing to the decision dynamics of the households across the districts, which lead to different outcomes. The study concludes that participation in the Girinka Programme's intervention significantly reduced food insecurity. To this end, there is a need to establish, as a strategic policy option, the institutionalisation and strengthening of the Girinka Programme for sustainability, which should be affirmed and safeguarded as a social protection policy that directly impacts food insecurity and supports the attainment of sustainable development.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43546-025-00904-w.