Isaac Taramusi, John Stover, Robert Glaubius, Tsitsi Apollo, Getrude Ncube, Owen Mugurungi, Ngwarai Sithole, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Jenny Smith, Andrew Phillips, Valentina Cambiano, Daniel T Citron, Anna Bershteyn, Debra Ten Brink, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Michael Pickles, Paul Revill, Amon Mpofu, Jeffrey Imai-Eaton, Richard Makurumidze, Simbarashe Rusakaniko
{"title":"津巴布韦艾滋病毒发病率和流行率预测:来自五个数学模型的结果。","authors":"Isaac Taramusi, John Stover, Robert Glaubius, Tsitsi Apollo, Getrude Ncube, Owen Mugurungi, Ngwarai Sithole, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Jenny Smith, Andrew Phillips, Valentina Cambiano, Daniel T Citron, Anna Bershteyn, Debra Ten Brink, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Michael Pickles, Paul Revill, Amon Mpofu, Jeffrey Imai-Eaton, Richard Makurumidze, Simbarashe Rusakaniko","doi":"10.2989/16085906.2025.2518936","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p><i>Introduction</i>: Understanding how HIV epidemics are likely to behave in the future is key to informing HIV response strategies in low-income countries. Up-to-date HIV epidemiological estimates are important for policy decision- making, but surveillance data can be out of date. This study compared forecasts from HIV epidemiological models.<i>Methods</i>: Five independent modelling groups (EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima and PopART-IBM) calibrated their mathematical models to datapoints provided by the Ministry of Health and produced several indicators of the HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe for the period 1990 to 2040, under a status quo scenario in which it was assumed continuation of interventions at the current level.<i>Results</i>: All models predicted a continuous decline in HIV incidence and prevalence. However, there was variability in the estimated 2023 incidence rate (range: 2.0-3.3 per 1 000 person-years) and prevalence (range: 12.1%-14.3%). Variance was even larger in 2040 for incidence (range: 1.0-3.0 per 1 000 person-years), while this was not the case for prevalence (range: 3.9%-6.0%). All the models predicted that the country would reach a target of less than 7 800 new HIV infections per year by 2025.<i>Conclusion</i>: Five independent mathematical models fitted to the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care's HIV surveillance data provided consistent predictions of continued decline in HIV incidence and prevalence in Zimbabwe if interventions continue to be implemented at the current levels, with prevalence predicted to be around a third of its level in 2000 by 2040.</p>","PeriodicalId":50833,"journal":{"name":"Ajar-African Journal of Aids Research","volume":" ","pages":"44-52"},"PeriodicalIF":1.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"HIV incidence and prevalence projections for Zimbabwe: Findings from five mathematical models.\",\"authors\":\"Isaac Taramusi, John Stover, Robert Glaubius, Tsitsi Apollo, Getrude Ncube, Owen Mugurungi, Ngwarai Sithole, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Jenny Smith, Andrew Phillips, Valentina Cambiano, Daniel T Citron, Anna Bershteyn, Debra Ten Brink, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Michael Pickles, Paul Revill, Amon Mpofu, Jeffrey Imai-Eaton, Richard Makurumidze, Simbarashe Rusakaniko\",\"doi\":\"10.2989/16085906.2025.2518936\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p><i>Introduction</i>: Understanding how HIV epidemics are likely to behave in the future is key to informing HIV response strategies in low-income countries. Up-to-date HIV epidemiological estimates are important for policy decision- making, but surveillance data can be out of date. This study compared forecasts from HIV epidemiological models.<i>Methods</i>: Five independent modelling groups (EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima and PopART-IBM) calibrated their mathematical models to datapoints provided by the Ministry of Health and produced several indicators of the HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe for the period 1990 to 2040, under a status quo scenario in which it was assumed continuation of interventions at the current level.<i>Results</i>: All models predicted a continuous decline in HIV incidence and prevalence. However, there was variability in the estimated 2023 incidence rate (range: 2.0-3.3 per 1 000 person-years) and prevalence (range: 12.1%-14.3%). Variance was even larger in 2040 for incidence (range: 1.0-3.0 per 1 000 person-years), while this was not the case for prevalence (range: 3.9%-6.0%). All the models predicted that the country would reach a target of less than 7 800 new HIV infections per year by 2025.<i>Conclusion</i>: Five independent mathematical models fitted to the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care's HIV surveillance data provided consistent predictions of continued decline in HIV incidence and prevalence in Zimbabwe if interventions continue to be implemented at the current levels, with prevalence predicted to be around a third of its level in 2000 by 2040.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50833,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Ajar-African Journal of Aids Research\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"44-52\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Ajar-African Journal of Aids Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2989/16085906.2025.2518936\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2025/8/20 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ajar-African Journal of Aids Research","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2989/16085906.2025.2518936","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2025/8/20 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH","Score":null,"Total":0}
HIV incidence and prevalence projections for Zimbabwe: Findings from five mathematical models.
Introduction: Understanding how HIV epidemics are likely to behave in the future is key to informing HIV response strategies in low-income countries. Up-to-date HIV epidemiological estimates are important for policy decision- making, but surveillance data can be out of date. This study compared forecasts from HIV epidemiological models.Methods: Five independent modelling groups (EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima and PopART-IBM) calibrated their mathematical models to datapoints provided by the Ministry of Health and produced several indicators of the HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe for the period 1990 to 2040, under a status quo scenario in which it was assumed continuation of interventions at the current level.Results: All models predicted a continuous decline in HIV incidence and prevalence. However, there was variability in the estimated 2023 incidence rate (range: 2.0-3.3 per 1 000 person-years) and prevalence (range: 12.1%-14.3%). Variance was even larger in 2040 for incidence (range: 1.0-3.0 per 1 000 person-years), while this was not the case for prevalence (range: 3.9%-6.0%). All the models predicted that the country would reach a target of less than 7 800 new HIV infections per year by 2025.Conclusion: Five independent mathematical models fitted to the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care's HIV surveillance data provided consistent predictions of continued decline in HIV incidence and prevalence in Zimbabwe if interventions continue to be implemented at the current levels, with prevalence predicted to be around a third of its level in 2000 by 2040.
期刊介绍:
African Journal of AIDS Research (AJAR) is a peer-reviewed research journal publishing papers that make an original contribution to the understanding of social dimensions of HIV/AIDS in African contexts. AJAR includes articles from, amongst others, the disciplines of sociology, demography, epidemiology, social geography, economics, psychology, anthropology, philosophy, health communication, media, cultural studies, public health, education, nursing science and social work. Papers relating to impact, care, prevention and social planning, as well as articles covering social theory and the history and politics of HIV/AIDS, will be considered for publication.