津巴布韦艾滋病毒发病率和流行率预测:来自五个数学模型的结果。

IF 1.1 4区 医学 Q4 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
Ajar-African Journal of Aids Research Pub Date : 2025-09-01 Epub Date: 2025-08-20 DOI:10.2989/16085906.2025.2518936
Isaac Taramusi, John Stover, Robert Glaubius, Tsitsi Apollo, Getrude Ncube, Owen Mugurungi, Ngwarai Sithole, Loveleen Bansi-Matharu, Jenny Smith, Andrew Phillips, Valentina Cambiano, Daniel T Citron, Anna Bershteyn, Debra Ten Brink, Rowan Martin-Hughes, Michael Pickles, Paul Revill, Amon Mpofu, Jeffrey Imai-Eaton, Richard Makurumidze, Simbarashe Rusakaniko
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引用次数: 0

摘要

导言:了解艾滋病毒流行病未来可能如何发展,是为低收入国家艾滋病毒应对战略提供信息的关键。最新的艾滋病毒流行病学估计对政策决策很重要,但监测数据可能过时。这项研究比较了艾滋病流行病学模型的预测结果。方法:五个独立建模小组(EMOD-HIV、Goals、HIV Synthesis、Optima和PopART-IBM)根据卫生部提供的数据点校准了它们的数学模型,并在假设干预措施继续保持当前水平的现状下,编制了1990年至2040年津巴布韦艾滋病毒流行的若干指标。结果:所有模型都预测HIV的发病率和流行率将持续下降。然而,估计2023年的发病率(范围:2.0-3.3 / 1000人-年)和患病率(范围:12.1%-14.3%)存在差异。到2040年,发病率的差异甚至更大(范围:1.0-3.0 / 1000人年),而患病率的情况并非如此(范围:3.9%-6.0%)。所有模型都预测,到2025年,该国将实现每年新增艾滋病毒感染人数低于7800人的目标。结论:与津巴布韦卫生和儿童保健部的艾滋病毒监测数据相匹配的五个独立数学模型提供了一致的预测,即如果干预措施继续在目前水平上实施,津巴布韦的艾滋病毒发病率和流行率将继续下降,预计到2040年流行率将降至2000年水平的三分之一左右。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
HIV incidence and prevalence projections for Zimbabwe: Findings from five mathematical models.

Introduction: Understanding how HIV epidemics are likely to behave in the future is key to informing HIV response strategies in low-income countries. Up-to-date HIV epidemiological estimates are important for policy decision- making, but surveillance data can be out of date. This study compared forecasts from HIV epidemiological models.Methods: Five independent modelling groups (EMOD-HIV, Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima and PopART-IBM) calibrated their mathematical models to datapoints provided by the Ministry of Health and produced several indicators of the HIV epidemic in Zimbabwe for the period 1990 to 2040, under a status quo scenario in which it was assumed continuation of interventions at the current level.Results: All models predicted a continuous decline in HIV incidence and prevalence. However, there was variability in the estimated 2023 incidence rate (range: 2.0-3.3 per 1 000 person-years) and prevalence (range: 12.1%-14.3%). Variance was even larger in 2040 for incidence (range: 1.0-3.0 per 1 000 person-years), while this was not the case for prevalence (range: 3.9%-6.0%). All the models predicted that the country would reach a target of less than 7 800 new HIV infections per year by 2025.Conclusion: Five independent mathematical models fitted to the Zimbabwe Ministry of Health and Child Care's HIV surveillance data provided consistent predictions of continued decline in HIV incidence and prevalence in Zimbabwe if interventions continue to be implemented at the current levels, with prevalence predicted to be around a third of its level in 2000 by 2040.

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来源期刊
Ajar-African Journal of Aids Research
Ajar-African Journal of Aids Research 医学-公共卫生、环境卫生与职业卫生
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
8.30%
发文量
38
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: African Journal of AIDS Research (AJAR) is a peer-reviewed research journal publishing papers that make an original contribution to the understanding of social dimensions of HIV/AIDS in African contexts. AJAR includes articles from, amongst others, the disciplines of sociology, demography, epidemiology, social geography, economics, psychology, anthropology, philosophy, health communication, media, cultural studies, public health, education, nursing science and social work. Papers relating to impact, care, prevention and social planning, as well as articles covering social theory and the history and politics of HIV/AIDS, will be considered for publication.
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