Identifying early risk factors for chronic pain development following vertebral fractures: a single-center prospective cohort study.

Study design: Longitudinal cohort study.

Purpose: To investigate factors associated with chronic pain (CP) development following vertebral fracture (VF).

Overview of literature: Factors contributing to CP development after VFs are not well characterized.

Methods: Hospitalized patients with acute VFs underwent assessment of vertebral morphology and paraspinal muscles. Two weeks post-admission, patients were evaluated for pain intensity (using the Verbal Rating Scale [VRS]), pain sensitivity (Pressure Pain Threshold [PPT] and Conditioned Pain Modulation), psychological factors, physical function, and activity levels. At 12 weeks, patients were categorized into CP and non-CP (NCP) groups based on VRS scores. Between-group comparisons and logistic regression analysis were performed to identify predictors of CP development.

Results: The CP group exhibited significantly lower remote PPT and reduced low-intensity physical activity time, but higher Pain Catastrophizing Scale rumination scores and prolonged 5-Times Sit-to-Stand Test (5SST) compared to the NCP group. Logistic regression identified prolonged 5SST and reduced low-intensity physical activity as independent predictors of CP development.

Conclusions: Prolonged 5SST and reduced low-intensity physical activity may predict CP development after VFs. Early assessment of these factors may facilitate CP risk screening in hospitalized patients with VFs.