Environmental impacts prediction using graph neural networks on molecular graphs

The chemical industry needs to undergo a significant transformation towards more sustainable and circular production systems. To guide this transformation, estimating the environmental impacts of chemical production at early product screening or development stages is highly desirable. This study leverages the molecular structure of the process products with graph neural networks (GNNs) for early-stage environmental impact approximation of chemical processes. Specifically, we use end-to-end GNN models to predict fifteen environmental impact categories, utilizing a CarbonMinds dataset of 51,905 processes producing 791 molecules produced in 91 countries, augmented with country-specific energy mix data. Our analysis begins with a comparison of Quantitative Structure-Property Relationship (QSPR) and GNN models for the climate change impact category. Specifically, we develop three different GNN models: (i) GNN with only molecular structure, (ii) GNN with molecular structure and additional geographical features, and (iii) GNN with molecular structure and additional energy mix features. The results indicate that the three GNN models show an improvement over the QSPR models. Furthermore, benchmarking our GNN models against the existing literature in the climate change impact category reveals that our models perform comparably. We then extend our approach by developing both single- and multi-task GNN models to predict all fifteen impact categories. The findings indicate that multi-task learning can improve model performance in complex environmental impact predictions compared to single-task GNNs. Therefore, we recommend using a multi-task GNN for predicting multiple impact categories, with single-task models applied to fine-tune performance on underperforming categories. Although our proposed approach shows improvements over previous models, the prediction of environmental impacts solely based on molecular information remains a rough approximation.