Sea Country Change: Projected Poleward Range Shifts for Bioculturally Important Marine Gastropods Under Climate Change

Turban snails (known as Gugumbal in Gumbainggir Country) are bioculturally important Sea Country molluscs distributed throughout south-eastern Australia. Like most shallow water marine species, climate change is anticipated to result in poleward range shifts, or possibly even regional extinctions. Given the biocultural importance of Gugumbal, an understanding of how future climate change impacts is necessary to anticipate cultural and ecological implications associated with the redistribution of these species. We developed species distribution models to assess for climate-driven redistributions among three Gugumbal species, including Turbo militaris, Lunella torquata and Lunella undulata. Modelling under four IPCC future climate change scenarios and two future time points (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2100) identified equatorward range edge contractions across all three species and poleward range edge expansion in two species, with the magnitude of anticipated range shifts being generally concomitant with increasing climate scenario severity. We discuss the ecological and cultural implications of the future redistribution of Gugumbal across the various Indigenous Sea Countries in south-eastern Australia.