坏消息传得很快：极端降雨、迁徙网络和迁徙

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Research in International Business and Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103112

Zhuoyang Lyu , Zhengsheng Li , Li Yu , Yue Jiang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了目的地城市极端降雨对移民流动的影响。利用2000 - 2010年中国288个城市的人口普查综合移民数据和详细的天气信息，我们发现极端降雨显著减少了移民。一个城市的极端降雨每增加一周，移民率就会下降0.105个百分点。我们确定了极端降雨影响移民的两个关键机制：企业运营的不确定性增加导致就业减少，以及移民网络在传递有关目的地条件的负面信息方面的作用。我们的异质性分析显示，年轻人、中学学历、农村户口持有者和跨区域流动人口对极端降雨冲击最为敏感。此外，基础设施投资较高的城市能更好地缓解极端降雨的负面影响，这表明适应性措施可以减少气候对移民的影响。这些发现对在日益严峻的气候变化挑战背景下的城市规划和区域发展政策具有重要意义。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Bad news travels fast: Extreme rainfall, migration networks, and migration

This paper investigates the impact of extreme rainfall in destination cities on immigration flows. Using comprehensive migration data from population censuses and detailed weather information from 288 Chinese cities between 2000 and 2010, we find that extreme rainfall significantly reduces immigration. For every additional week of extreme rainfall in a city, the immigration rate decreases by 0.105 percentage points. We identify two key mechanisms through which extreme rainfall affects migration: heightened uncertainty in firm operations leading to reduced employment, and the role of migration networks in conveying negative information about destination conditions. Our heterogeneity analysis reveals that young adults, individuals with middle school education, rural hukou holders, and inter-regional migrants are most sensitive to extreme rainfall shocks. Furthermore, cities with higher infrastructure investment better mitigate the negative effects of extreme rainfall, demonstrating how adaptive measures can reduce climate impacts on migration. These findings have important implications for urban planning and regional development policies in the context of increasing climate change challenges.

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来源期刊

Research in International Business and Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.20

自引率

9.20%

发文量

240

期刊介绍： Research in International Business and Finance (RIBAF) seeks to consolidate its position as a premier scholarly vehicle of academic finance. The Journal publishes high quality, insightful, well-written papers that explore current and new issues in international finance. Papers that foster dialogue, innovation, and intellectual risk-taking in financial studies; as well as shed light on the interaction between finance and broader societal concerns are particularly appreciated. The Journal welcomes submissions that seek to expand the boundaries of academic finance and otherwise challenge the discipline. Papers studying finance using a variety of methodologies; as well as interdisciplinary studies will be considered for publication. Papers that examine topical issues using extensive international data sets are welcome. Single-country studies can also be considered for publication provided that they develop novel methodological and theoretical approaches or fall within the Journal''s priority themes. It is especially important that single-country studies communicate to the reader why the particular chosen country is especially relevant to the issue being investigated. [...] The scope of topics that are most interesting to RIBAF readers include the following: -Financial markets and institutions -Financial practices and sustainability -The impact of national culture on finance -The impact of formal and informal institutions on finance -Privatizations, public financing, and nonprofit issues in finance -Interdisciplinary financial studies -Finance and international development -International financial crises and regulation -Financialization studies -International financial integration and architecture -Behavioral aspects in finance -Consumer finance -Methodologies and conceptualization issues related to finance