基于疫苗接种和神经功能障碍动力学的疟疾传播高级ANN - LMB模型

IF 2.9 4区 工程技术 Q1 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
Rahat Zarin, Kamel Guedri, Basim M. Makhdoum, Hatoon A. Niyazi, Hamiden Abd El‐Wahed Khalifa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

疟疾在流行地区仍然是一个持续存在的公共卫生挑战,在这些地区,高传播率和有限的干预措施覆盖率导致了很高的发病率和死亡率。在其严重形式中,由恶性疟原虫引起的脑型疟疾是导致长期神经功能残疾的主要原因,特别是在儿童中。在这项研究中,开发了一个改进的基于SITRM的室室模型,该模型集成了疫苗接种动态和残疾进展参数(),以及治疗失败、再感染和意识驱动的行为改变。全面的数学分析建立了在适当条件下无病平衡(DFE)的局部稳定性。为了高效准确地模拟模型的非线性动力学,采用Levenberg - Marquardt反向传播(LMB)算法训练的人工神经网络(ANN)。人工神经网络在经典RK4方法生成的数值解上进行训练,使用85%的数据分割用于训练,10%用于验证,5%用于测试。在多种情况下,包括DFE、流行平衡和对关键流行病学参数的敏感性,人工神经网络的均方误差(mse)始终保持在-之间,回归系数接近1()。人工神经网络预测与参考解决方案非常一致,并且在所有隔间中保持低绝对误差。这些发现强调了ANN - LMB框架在疟疾动力学建模和预测严重后果(包括神经功能障碍)方面的有效性,从而为优化疫苗接种策略和以残疾为重点的公共卫生干预提供了有价值的见解。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Advanced ANN‐LMB Modeling of Malaria Transmission with Vaccination and Neurological Disability Dynamics
Malaria remains a persistent public health challenge in endemic regions, where high transmission rates and limited intervention coverage contribute to significant morbidity and mortality. Among its severe forms, cerebral malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum is a leading cause of long‐term neurological disability, especially in children. In this study, a modified SITRM‐based compartmental model is developed that integrates vaccination dynamics and a disability progression parameter (), along with treatment failure, reinfection, and awareness‐driven behavioral changes. A comprehensive mathematical analysis establishes the local stability of the disease‐free equilibrium (DFE) under suitable conditions. To simulate the nonlinear dynamics of the model efficiently and accurately, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) trained via the Levenberg‐Marquardt Backpropagation (LMB) algorithm is employed. The ANN is trained on numerical solutions generated by the classical RK4 method, using a data split of 85% for training, 10% for validation, and 5% for testing. Across multiple case scenarios, including DFE, endemic equilibrium, and sensitivity to key epidemiological parameters, the ANN achieves consistently low mean squared errors (MSEs) ranging from to , with regression coefficients approaching unity (). The ANN predictions demonstrate excellent agreement with reference solutions and maintain low absolute errors across all compartments. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the ANN‐LMB framework in modeling malaria dynamics and predicting severe outcomes, including neurological disability, thereby offering valuable insights for optimizing vaccination strategies and disability‐focused public health interventions.
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来源期刊
Advanced Theory and Simulations
Advanced Theory and Simulations Multidisciplinary-Multidisciplinary
CiteScore
5.50
自引率
3.00%
发文量
221
期刊介绍: Advanced Theory and Simulations is an interdisciplinary, international, English-language journal that publishes high-quality scientific results focusing on the development and application of theoretical methods, modeling and simulation approaches in all natural science and medicine areas, including: materials, chemistry, condensed matter physics engineering, energy life science, biology, medicine atmospheric/environmental science, climate science planetary science, astronomy, cosmology method development, numerical methods, statistics
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