高铁与中国城市产业升级：准实验研究

IF 5.4 2区地球科学 Q1 GEOGRAPHY

Applied Geography Pub Date : 2025-08-22 DOI:10.1016/j.apgeog.2025.103757

Yibo Qiao , Andrea Ascani

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文研究了高速铁路对城市产业升级的影响。利用《工业企业年度调查（1998-2015）》和中国高铁开放信息，对300个地级以上城市和389个4位数制造业进行了差异中差异（DDD）分析。我们发现高铁使城市能够进入更复杂的产业，并且在平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、工具变量估计等规范下，这一结果是稳健的。机制分析表明，高铁可以通过吸引外商直接投资、生产性服务业和优质人力资本来促进城市产业升级。异质性分析表明，高铁对发达地区产业升级的影响大于欠发达地区。我们将高铁视为区域外部联系，并将因果分析纳入区域多样化研究，为演化经济地理学做出贡献。

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High-speed railway and city industrial upgrading in China: A quasi-experimental study

This paper investigates the effect of High-speed Railway (HSR) on city industrial upgrading. Using the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms (1998–2015) and HSR opening information in China, we conduct a difference-in-differences-in-differences (DDD) analysis on 300 prefecture- and higher-level cities and 389 4-digit manufacturing industries. We find that HSR enables cities to enter more complex industries, and this result is robust under parallel trend test, placebo test, instrumental variable estimation, and other specifications. Mechanism analysis shows that HSR could promote city industrial upgrading by attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), producer services, and high-quality human capital. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that developed regions benefit more from HSR than undeveloped regions in industrial upgrading. We contribute to Evolutionary Economic Geography by considering HSR as a regional external linkage and by integrating causal analysis in the study of regional diversification.

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来源期刊

Applied Geography GEOGRAPHY-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

2.00%

发文量

134

期刊介绍： Applied Geography is a journal devoted to the publication of research which utilizes geographic approaches (human, physical, nature-society and GIScience) to resolve human problems that have a spatial dimension. These problems may be related to the assessment, management and allocation of the world physical and/or human resources. The underlying rationale of the journal is that only through a clear understanding of the relevant societal, physical, and coupled natural-humans systems can we resolve such problems. Papers are invited on any theme involving the application of geographical theory and methodology in the resolution of human problems.