Federated resource prediction in UAV networks for efficient composition of drone delivery services

As drones continue to see widespread adoption across commercial, private, healthcare, and education sectors, their commercial use is experiencing rapid growth. To enhance drone-based package delivery efficiency and improve customer experience, the vast amount of flight and recharging data collected from drones and stations offers valuable opportunities for predicting both resource availability within the sky network and drones’ capacity to complete delivery missions. However, the variations in regional regulations and privacy restrictions enforced by drone service providers lead to data heterogeneity, making centralized processing of flight and charging history impractical. Running machine learning models locally at the service provider level (drones and stations) addresses privacy concerns, yet processing the large volume and diversity of raw data remains a significant challenge. To deal with these issues, a collaborative learning approach based on historical delivery data presents an elegant solution. Aiming to offer predictive scheduling of drone delivery missions, while taking into consideration the complexity, heterogeneity, and dynamic nature of their flight environment, we propose a predictive and federated approach for the resilient selection and composition of drone delivery services, leveraging the strengths of federated learning (FL) to handle data privacy and heterogeneity. Our method utilizes a federated Recurrent Neural Network (FL-RNN) model that combines predictive capabilities with federated behavior, enabling collaborative forecasting and efficient mission scheduling in low-congestion regions based on the most reliable drone services. Additionally, an enhanced A* search algorithm is defined to identify the optimal delivery path by factoring in station overload probabilities. Besides computational efficiency, experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, achieving a 16.66% improvement in prediction accuracy and an 8.89% reduction in delivery costs compared to non-federated and non-predictive solutions.