[Analysis of risk factors for ventilator-associated pneumonia and its prognosis in patients with severe craniocerebral injury].

Objective: To analyze the risk factors for ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) and its prognosis in patients with severe craniocerebral injury.

Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted. Patients with severe craniocerebral injury admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xingtai Medical College from January 2020 to December 2022 were enrolled as the study subjects. Patients were divided into VAP group and non-VAP group based on the occurrence of VAP. VAP patients were further stratified into low-risk group [sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score 0-5], moderate-risk group (SOFA score 6-8), and high-risk group (SOFA score ≥ 9). General data, serological indicators [interleukin-6 (IL-6), interleukin-1β (IL-1β), tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (STAT3)], and 28-day prognosis (with mortality as the endpoint event) were compared. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for VAP and 28-day mortality. Linear regression was applied to analyze the correlations between risk factors and outcomes.

Results: A total of 140 patients with severe craniocerebral injury were enrolled, including 49 in the VAP group and 91 in the non-VAP group. The primary cause of injury was traffic accidents, followed by falls and heavy object impacts. Among VAP patients, 38 survived and 11 died within 28 days; 112 were classified as low-risk, 25 as moderate-risk, and 12 as high-risk. Significant differences were observed in age, body mass index (BMI), smoking history, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, length of hospital stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, serum albumin levels, and frequency of sputum suction among different subgroups. Serologically, IL-1β, TNF-α, IL-6, and STAT3 mRNA expression levels in the VAP group were significantly higher than those in the non-VAP group. Deceased VAP patients exhibited higher IL-1β, TNF-α, IL-6, and STAT3 mRNA levels compared to survivors. These biomarkers progressively increased from low-risk to high-risk subgroups. Multivariate Logistic regression identified age [odds ratio (OR) were 0.328 and 0.318], BMI (OR were 0.340 and 0.268), hypertension (OR were 0.275 and 0.245), diabetes (OR were 0.319 and 0.307), hyperlipidemia (OR were 0.228 and 0.235), smoking history (OR were 0.255 and 0.240), length of hospital stay (OR were 0.306 and 0.230), duration of mechanical ventilation (OR were 0.247 and 0.219), frequency of sputum suction (OR were 0.325 and 0.228), IL-1β (OR were 0.231 and 0.259), TNF-α (OR were 0.308 and 0.235), IL-6 (OR were 0.298 and 0.277), and STAT3 (OR were 0.259 and 0.265) as independent risk factors for both VAP occurrence and 28-day mortality (all P < 0.05). Correlation analysis revealed that serum albumin levels were negatively correlated with VAP occurrence and mortality (all P < 0.01), while other factors showed positive correlations (all P < 0.01).

Conclusions: Age, BMI, length of hospital stay, duration of mechanical ventilation, frequency of sputum suction, hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, smoking history, IL-1β, TNF-α, and IL-6/STAT3 signaling pathway activation are significantly associated with VAP development and poor prognosis in patients with severe craniocerebral injury, providing a scientific basis for targeted clinical interventions.