全球儿童癫痫负担：全球疾病负担数据库分析（1990-2021）及2035年预测

IF 2.1 3区医学 Q2 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY

Pediatric neurology Pub Date : 2025-07-29 DOI:10.1016/j.pediatrneurol.2025.07.014

Chen-Qi Zhang MD , Hong-Yan Li MD , Li Li MD , Yu-Xin Zeng BD , Hua-Fang Yuan BD , Si-Yu Liang BD , Yang-Mei Chen PhD

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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究1990年至2021年0-14岁儿童癫痫患病率、发病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）的趋势，并预测未来十年至2035年的流行病学模式。方法采用标准化的全球疾病负担方法，对1990年至2021年204个国家和地区的儿童癫痫负担进行评估。我们的目标是通过纳入四个关键的流行病学指标——患病率、发病率、死亡率和残疾患者——包括其趋势并预测未来十年的趋势，对儿童癫痫对健康的影响进行全面评估。这些数据以原始计数和每10万人的年龄标准化率的形式呈现，并附有95%的不确定性区间（UIs）。结果1990 - 2021年，全球年龄标准化患病率（ASPR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和年龄标准化残疾调整生命年率（ASDR）普遍下降，而年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）略有上升。2021年，全球ASPR和ASIR分别为302.99 （95% UI: 212.38 ~ 411.09）和61.00 (95% UI: 39.09 ~ 86.21)， ASMR和ASDR分别为0.90 （95% UI: 0.69 ~ 1.06）和177.17 (95% UI: 134.25 ~ 236.27)，男性普遍高于女性。10-14岁年龄组患病率最高，1岁以下年龄组患病率最低，ASIR、ASMR和ASDR的年龄分布相反。在社会人口指数（SDI）高的地区，ASPR和ASIR最高，赤道几内亚、厄瓜多尔和加蓬最高，朝鲜、所罗门群岛和中国最低。低SDI地区的ASMR和ASDR最高，其中南苏丹、赞比亚和坦桑尼亚最高，而越南的ASMR最低，丹麦和瑞典的ASDR最低。结论在过去的32年中，儿童癫痫的发病率、死亡率和DALYs普遍下降，但SDI较低的地区仍报告较高的死亡率和DALYs。男性和1岁以下婴儿面临的癫痫负担过高。预计到2035年，全球儿童癫痫负担将下降，特别是5岁以下儿童，患病率和伤残调整生命年将显著降低。与女性相比，男性癫痫发病率和残疾调整生命年的下降更为明显和迅速。

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Global Pediatric Epilepsy Burden: Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Database (1990-2021) With Projections to 2035

Background

To examine the trends in epilepsy prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among children aged 0-14 years from 1990 to 2021, and projected the epidemiological patterns for the next decade to 2035.

Methods

Employing standardized Global Burden of Disease approaches, our study evaluated the burden of pediatric epilepsy in 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2021. Our objective was to provide a comprehensive assessment of the health impact of pediatric epilepsy by incorporating four critical epidemiological indicators—prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs—including their trends and projecting them for the next decade. These data are presented as both raw counts and age-standardized rates per 100,000 people, accompanied by 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results

From 1990 to 2021, global age-standardized Prevalence Rate (ASPR), age-standardized Mortality Rate (ASMR), and age-standardized Disability-Adjusted Life Years rate (ASDR) generally declined, while age-standardized Incidence Rate (ASIR) slightly increased. In 2021, global ASPR and ASIR were 302.99 (95% UI: 212.38-411.09) and 61.00 (95% UI: 39.09-86.21), respectively, while ASMR and ASDR were 0.90 (95% UI: 0.69-1.06) and 177.17 (95% UI: 134.25-236.27), with males generally higher than females. The 10-14 years age group had the highest prevalence, and the under-one age group the lowest, with ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR age distributions reversed. ASPR and ASIR were highest in high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, with Equatorial Guinea, Ecuador, and Gabon highest, and North Korea, Solomon Islands, and China lowest. ASMR and ASDR were highest in low SDI regions, with South Sudan, Zambia, and Tanzania highest, while Vietnam had the lowest ASMR, and Denmark and Sweden had the lowest ASDR.

Conclusions

Over the past 32 years, incidence, mortality, and DALYs for pediatric epilepsy have generally declined, yet regions with lower SDI still report higher mortality and DALYs. Males and infants under 1 year face a disproportionately higher burden of epilepsy. Projected declines in the global burden of pediatric epilepsy are anticipated through 2035, particularly among children under five years, with significant reductions in prevalence and DALYs. The decrease in epilepsy incidence and DALYs among males is more pronounced and rapid compared to females.

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来源期刊

Pediatric neurology 医学-临床神经学

CiteScore

4.80

自引率

2.60%

发文量

176

审稿时长

78 days

期刊介绍： Pediatric Neurology publishes timely peer-reviewed clinical and research articles covering all aspects of the developing nervous system. Pediatric Neurology features up-to-the-minute publication of the latest advances in the diagnosis, management, and treatment of pediatric neurologic disorders. The journal''s editor, E. Steve Roach, in conjunction with the team of Associate Editors, heads an internationally recognized editorial board, ensuring the most authoritative and extensive coverage of the field. Among the topics covered are: epilepsy, mitochondrial diseases, congenital malformations, chromosomopathies, peripheral neuropathies, perinatal and childhood stroke, cerebral palsy, as well as other diseases affecting the developing nervous system.