{"title":"在缺少数据的情况下估计极端浪涌","authors":"James H. McVittie, Orla A. Murphy","doi":"10.1002/env.70036","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The block maxima approach, which consists of dividing a series of observations into equal-sized blocks to extract the block maxima, is commonly used for identifying and modeling extreme events using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In the analysis of coastal wave surge levels, the underlying data that generate the block maxima typically have missing observations. Consequently, the observed block maxima may not correspond to the true block maxima, yielding biased estimates of the GEV distribution parameters. Various parametric modeling procedures are proposed to account for the presence of missing observations under a block maxima framework. The performance of these estimators is compared through an extensive simulation study and illustrated by an analysis of extreme wave surges in Atlantic Canada.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"36 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.70036","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimating Extreme Wave Surges in the Presence of Missing Data\",\"authors\":\"James H. McVittie, Orla A. Murphy\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/env.70036\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The block maxima approach, which consists of dividing a series of observations into equal-sized blocks to extract the block maxima, is commonly used for identifying and modeling extreme events using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In the analysis of coastal wave surge levels, the underlying data that generate the block maxima typically have missing observations. Consequently, the observed block maxima may not correspond to the true block maxima, yielding biased estimates of the GEV distribution parameters. Various parametric modeling procedures are proposed to account for the presence of missing observations under a block maxima framework. The performance of these estimators is compared through an extensive simulation study and illustrated by an analysis of extreme wave surges in Atlantic Canada.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50512,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Environmetrics\",\"volume\":\"36 6\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/env.70036\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Environmetrics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/env.70036\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmetrics","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/env.70036","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimating Extreme Wave Surges in the Presence of Missing Data
The block maxima approach, which consists of dividing a series of observations into equal-sized blocks to extract the block maxima, is commonly used for identifying and modeling extreme events using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In the analysis of coastal wave surge levels, the underlying data that generate the block maxima typically have missing observations. Consequently, the observed block maxima may not correspond to the true block maxima, yielding biased estimates of the GEV distribution parameters. Various parametric modeling procedures are proposed to account for the presence of missing observations under a block maxima framework. The performance of these estimators is compared through an extensive simulation study and illustrated by an analysis of extreme wave surges in Atlantic Canada.
期刊介绍:
Environmetrics, the official journal of The International Environmetrics Society (TIES), an Association of the International Statistical Institute, is devoted to the dissemination of high-quality quantitative research in the environmental sciences.
The journal welcomes pertinent and innovative submissions from quantitative disciplines developing new statistical and mathematical techniques, methods, and theories that solve modern environmental problems. Articles must proffer substantive, new statistical or mathematical advances to answer important scientific questions in the environmental sciences, or must develop novel or enhanced statistical methodology with clear applications to environmental science. New methods should be illustrated with recent environmental data.