菲律宾猪群再繁殖计划的事后影响分析

IF 2 4区社会学 Q2 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY

Evaluation and Program Planning Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI:10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102675

Lary Nel B. Abao , Ruth M. Sonaco , Miguel V. Guioguio , Alvin Paul J. Dirain , Roland Y. Fajardo , Joseph Frank Mgaya

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引用次数: 0

摘要

为期3年的全国养猪生产综合恢复和扩大计划（INSPIRE）是菲律宾农业部的全国再繁殖和恢复计划-国家畜牧业计划，提供旨在恢复受到非洲猪瘟（ASF）严重影响的养猪业的干预措施。该研究的重点是向2022和2023财政年度拨款最高的三个地区提供的干预措施：吕宋岛中部、卡拉巴松和达沃地区。采用SARIMA模型和财务分析相结合的方法来衡量重新人口计划的影响。创建了两种预测：一种预测使用2000年第一季度至2019年第二季度的数据集，假设没有非洲猪瘟爆发的情况，而另一种预测则反映了实施INSPIRE计划之前的情况，使用2000年第一季度至2021Q4的数据集。该研究估计了INSPIRE计划对这三个地区的影响，结果显示吕宋岛中部和卡拉巴松省从该计划中受益匪浅。如果没有INSPIRE计划，吕宋岛中部的生猪产量可能会在2022年第二季度（2022Q2）之前被消灭，而卡拉巴松岛将在2023年第一季度（2023Q1）面临类似的情况。相比之下，INSPIRE项目在达沃地区的影响较小，因为该地区后来才受到非洲猪瘟的影响。项目投资的成本效益分析和净现值产生了有利的比率，表明其财务可行性和成功。根据影响分析，建议在增加资金的情况下，将养猪繁殖计划持续到2025年以后。这是菲律宾第一个利用时间序列SARIMA预测来评估猪重新种群计划影响的研究。

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Ex-post impact analysis of the Philippine pig repopulation program

The 3-year Integrated National Swine Production Initiatives for Recovery and Expansion (INSPIRE) program is the national repopulation and recovery program of the Philippine Department of Agriculture-National Livestock Program, offering a mix of interventions aimed at reviving the swine industry, which was significantly impacted by African Swine Fever (ASF). The study focused on the interventions provided to the three regions with the highest allocation from fiscal years (FYs) 2022 and 2023: Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and the Davao region. A combination of SARIMA modeling and financial analyses was employed to measure the impacts of the repopulation program.

Two forecasts were created: one assumes a situation without African swine fever outbreaks, using datasets from 2000Q1 to 2019Q2, whereas the other reflects the situation prior to the implementation of the INSPIRE program, which utilizes datasets from 2000Q1 to 2021Q4.

The study estimated the impact of the INSPIRE program in these three regions, revealing that Central Luzon and CALABARZON significantly benefited from the program. Without the INSPIRE program, pig production in Central Luzon could have been wiped out by the second quarter of 2022 (2022Q2), whereas CALABARZON would have faced a similar scenario by the first quarter of 2023 (2023Q1). In contrast, the INSPIRE program had a lesser impact in the Davao Region, as it was affected by ASF later.

The cost benefit analysis and net present value of the program investments yielded favorable ratios that indicate their financial viability and success. Based on the impact analysis, it is recommended that the swine repopulation program be continued beyond 2025 with increased funding.

This is the first study in the Philippines which utilizes time series SARIMA forecasting to evaluate the impact of a pig repopulation program.

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来源期刊

Evaluation and Program Planning SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY-

CiteScore

3.10

自引率

6.20%

发文量

112

期刊介绍： Evaluation and Program Planning is based on the principle that the techniques and methods of evaluation and planning transcend the boundaries of specific fields and that relevant contributions to these areas come from people representing many different positions, intellectual traditions, and interests. In order to further the development of evaluation and planning, we publish articles from the private and public sectors in a wide range of areas: organizational development and behavior, training, planning, human resource development, health and mental, social services, mental retardation, corrections, substance abuse, and education.