宣布关税作为全球压力测试：股市对美国保护主义的早期反应

IF 6.9 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Finance Research Letters Pub Date : 2025-08-10 DOI:10.1016/j.frl.2025.108080

Tomasz Kaczmarek , Ender Demir , Wael Rouatbi , Adam Zaremba

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了全球股市对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普于2025年4月2日宣布的互惠关税的初步反应。通过分析67个国家的日回报率，我们发现，在美联储宣布降息后的四天时间里，这些国家的股价普遍大幅下跌。各国的市场反应各不相同。贸易敞口较大的市场和贸易顺差较大的市场跌幅较大，这表明人们认为，更开放的经济体更容易受到未来贸易摩擦的影响。此外，较大的市场和失业率或通货膨胀率较高的国家面临更大的损失——可能是由于对出口竞争力或宏观经济脆弱性的担忧。相比之下，GDP增长强劲的国家更具弹性。这些发现表明，投资者的反应是由直接贸易敞口和与长期脆弱性相关的更广泛的结构性因素共同决定的。

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Tariffs announcement as a global stress test: Early stock market reactions to U.S. protectionism

We study initial global equity market reactions to the reciprocal tariffs announced by the U.S. President Donald Trump on April 2, 2025. Using daily returns from 67 countries, we find a sharp and widespread decline in stock prices over the four-day window following the announcement. Market reactions varied across countries. Markets with higher trade exposure and those running trade surpluses experienced larger declines, suggesting that more open economies were perceived as more vulnerable to future trade frictions. In addition, larger markets and countries with higher unemployment or inflation faced steeper losses — likely due to concerns over export competitiveness or macroeconomic fragility. In contrast, countries with stronger GDP growth were more resilient. These findings suggest that investor reactions were shaped by a combination of direct trade exposure and broader structural factors linked to long-term vulnerability.

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来源期刊

Finance Research Letters BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.10

自引率

14.40%

发文量

863

期刊介绍： Finance Research Letters welcomes submissions across all areas of finance, aiming for rapid publication of significant new findings. The journal particularly encourages papers that provide insight into the replicability of established results, examine the cross-national applicability of previous findings, challenge existing methodologies, or demonstrate methodological contingencies. Papers are invited in the following areas: Actuarial studies Alternative investments Asset Pricing Bankruptcy and liquidation Banks and other Depository Institutions Behavioral and experimental finance Bibliometric and Scientometric studies of finance Capital budgeting and corporate investment Capital markets and accounting Capital structure and payout policy Commodities Contagion, crises and interdependence Corporate governance Credit and fixed income markets and instruments Derivatives Emerging markets Energy Finance and Energy Markets Financial Econometrics Financial History Financial intermediation and money markets Financial markets and marketplaces Financial Mathematics and Econophysics Financial Regulation and Law Forecasting Frontier market studies International Finance Market efficiency, event studies Mergers, acquisitions and the market for corporate control Micro Finance Institutions Microstructure Non-bank Financial Institutions Personal Finance Portfolio choice and investing Real estate finance and investing Risk SME, Family and Entrepreneurial Finance