低迷的好处：萧条和众包预测

IF 3.8 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance Pub Date : 2025-08-12 DOI:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107526

Sima Jannati , Sarah Khalaf , Du Nguyen

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究考察了非严重抑郁症作为对抗过度乐观的心理锚的作用。使用Estimize的收益预测，我们发现美国抑郁症患者比例的增加与用户预测准确性的提高有关。这种影响主要集中在乐观的预测者和花费较长时间发布预测的分析师身上，突出表明乐观情绪的降低和信息处理的缓慢是解释我们结果的经济机制。我们还表明，这种影响不同于临时季节性萧条或其他情绪措施对决策的影响。总的来说，我们的研究建立了抑郁和众包财务评估之间的联系

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The up side of being down: Depression and crowdsourced forecasts

This study examines the role of non-severe depression as a psychological anchor against overoptimism. Using earnings forecasts from Estimize, we find that an increase in the proportion of the U.S. population with depression is associated with improved forecast accuracy among users. This effect is concentrated among forecasts that are optimistic and analysts who take longer time to issue forecasts, highlighting reduced optimism and slow information processing as economic mechanisms that explain our results. We also show that this effect is distinct from the influence of temporary seasonal depression or other sentiment measures on decision-making. Overall, our research establishes a link between depression and crowdsourced financial evaluations

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来源期刊

Journal of Banking & Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

6.40

自引率

5.40%

发文量

262

期刊介绍： The Journal of Banking and Finance (JBF) publishes theoretical and empirical research papers spanning all the major research fields in finance and banking. The aim of the Journal of Banking and Finance is to provide an outlet for the increasing flow of scholarly research concerning financial institutions and the money and capital markets within which they function. The Journal''s emphasis is on theoretical developments and their implementation, empirical, applied, and policy-oriented research in banking and other domestic and international financial institutions and markets. The Journal''s purpose is to improve communications between, and within, the academic and other research communities and policymakers and operational decision makers at financial institutions - private and public, national and international, and their regulators. The Journal is one of the largest Finance journals, with approximately 1500 new submissions per year, mainly in the following areas: Asset Management; Asset Pricing; Banking (Efficiency, Regulation, Risk Management, Solvency); Behavioural Finance; Capital Structure; Corporate Finance; Corporate Governance; Derivative Pricing and Hedging; Distribution Forecasting with Financial Applications; Entrepreneurial Finance; Empirical Finance; Financial Economics; Financial Markets (Alternative, Bonds, Currency, Commodity, Derivatives, Equity, Energy, Real Estate); FinTech; Fund Management; General Equilibrium Models; High-Frequency Trading; Intermediation; International Finance; Hedge Funds; Investments; Liquidity; Market Efficiency; Market Microstructure; Mergers and Acquisitions; Networks; Performance Analysis; Political Risk; Portfolio Optimization; Regulation of Financial Markets and Institutions; Risk Management and Analysis; Systemic Risk; Term Structure Models; Venture Capital.