SMART: a new patient similarity estimation framework for enhanced predictive modeling in acute kidney injury.

Objective: Accurately measuring patient similarity is essential for precision medicine, enabling personalized predictive modeling, disease subtyping, and individualized treatment by identifying patients with similar characteristics to an index patient. This study aims to develop an electronic health record-based patient similarity estimation framework to enhance personalized predictive modeling for Acute Kidney Injury (AKI), a complex and life-threatening condition where accurate prediction is critical for timely intervention.

Materials and methods: We introduce Similarity Measurement for Acute Kidney Injury Risk Tracking (SMART), a new patient similarity estimation framework with 3 key enhancements: (1) overlap weighting to adjust similarity scores; (2) distance measure optimization; and (3) feature type weight optimization. These enhancements were evaluated using internal and external validation datasets from 2 tertiary academic hospitals to predict AKI risk across varying group sizes of similar patients.

Results: The study analyzed data from 8637 patients in the reference patient pool and 8542 patients in each of the internal and external test sets. Each enhancement was independently evaluated while controlling for other variables to determine its impact on prediction performance. SMART consistently outperformed 3 baseline models on both the internal and external test sets (P<.05) and demonstrated improved performance in certain subpopulations with unique health profiles compared to a traditional machine learning approach.

Discussion: SMART improves the identification of high-quality similar patient groups, enhancing the accuracy of personalized AKI prediction across various group sizes. By accurately identifying clinically relevant similar patients, clinicians can tailor treatments more effectively, advancing personalized care.