[Impact of heat on health: intervention scenarios to reduce heat in urban areas and health co-benefits in 6 Italian cities involved in the Climactions project].

Objectives: to quantify the impact of heat on mortality, in terms of heat attributable deaths in 6 Italian cities included in the CCM Climactions project (Turin, Genoa, Bologna, Rome, Bari, Palermo) and to estimate the potential health co-benefits by considering temperature reduction scenarios in urban areas proposed in the project case studies in terms of urban nature-based solutions measures and albedo variation of impervious surfaces.

Design: city-specific time series models and impact assessment.

Setting and participants: daily mortality counts and average temperature data in six Italian cities (Turin, Genoa, Bologna, Rome, Bari, Palermo) included in the CCM CLIMACTIONS project Main outcome measures: overall mortality. Non-linear distributed lag models were used to estimate risk and attributable deaths for increments between the 75th and the 99th percentiles of the mean temperature distribution (lag 0-3) over the period 2006-2015. To estimate the benefits of the intervention scenarios proposed in Climactions to reduce temperatures in urban areas, the deaths attributable to heat with and without this reduction were calculated and the difference between the two estimates corresponds to the potential change in the impact due to scenario measures introduced.

Results: the study reports a reduction in heat attributable deaths between 25% and 35% and between 40% and 60% in all cities, respectively, for the two scenarios of average temperature mitigation equal to 1.3°C and 2°C.

Conclusions: although only referring to simulation scenarios, the study provides further evidence of how urban nature-based solutions and the variation in the albedo of surfaces can be beneficial at an urban level both for the environment and populations health, supporting the implementation of climate change adaptation measures.