Consumers misestimate the greenhouse gas emissions associated with sustainable behaviors, firms, and industries

Consumers are increasingly aware of the ecological impact of their consumption. Many intend to reduce their personal carbon footprint by adopting more environmentally friendly behaviors, like reducing meat consumption, avoiding short-distance flights, or switching to green energy providers. But do consumers know which behaviors contribute most to reducing emissions? Do they know which businesses and industries emit more greenhouse gases than others? We examine the accuracy of German consumers’ carbon emissions judgments, replicating and extending work suggesting widespread lack of carbon competence in the Unites States. Across six studies (N = 2028), we demonstrate that German consumers often make inaccurate judgments about the emissions associated with sustainable behaviors, firms, and industries. We investigate judgmental biases that can distort the emissions judgments. Corroborating earlier observations, our results suggest that emissions judgments can be biased by cognitive processes of attribute substitution. Decision makers can answer the complex question of carbon emissions by substituting easier attributes instead, like how many people within their social circle adopt a sustainable behavior, or how much they like a firm. We discuss how better understanding biases in carbon emissions judgments can contribute to improving consumer carbon competence.