Health economic evaluation of a risk-stratified intervention in diabetic kidney disease.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS The study aimed to model the progression of diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in a multi-ethnic Asian population and evaluate the economic impact of a risk-stratified intervention for DKD management. METHODS Using the Singapore Diabetic Cohort (N=9660), multi-state Markov models were constructed to derive chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage-specific transition probabilities for disease progression based on Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) guidelines. These were internally validated in 50% training and 50% testing datasets and further validated in national administrative datasets (N=73,256). A cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis for a hypothetical intervention of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2is) was conducted from a healthcare system perspective, across different time horizons, in low-risk (G0-G2) and high-risk individuals (G3-G4) based on eGFR-defined DKD risk stages. RESULTS Annually, more than half of the participants (53.0-88.8%) stayed in the same DKD stage, with the probabilities of progressing or regressing to the next DKD stage being highest between stages G0 and G1. The SGLT2i intervention was cost-effective when given in low-risk, but not in high-risk, individuals with type 2 diabetes in both the short and the long term. Additionally, implementing the SGLT2i intervention would incur a 5 year cumulative cost increase of 41.5%, assuming an annual 5% increase in market uptake. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION We developed a robust model of DKD progression based on real-world data and demonstrated its value through economic modelling of risk-stratified interventions with known effectiveness. This model can aid policymakers and health professionals in evaluating population-level interventions for evidence-based policy decisions.