Forecasting biogas potential in Türkiye’s Central Anatolia region with artificial neural networks and geographical information system-based analysis

The global utilization of biogas energy generated via anaerobic digestion has been steadily increasing, emphasizing the importance of assessing biomass resources and estimating biogas generation potential before implementing large-scale production. This study focuses on Türkiye’s Central Anatolia Region (CAR), which had a bovine population of 3.95 million in 2021, accounting for over 5 % of Europe’s bovine population. A key novelty of this research lies in the estimation of the region’s bovine manure-based biogas potential (BMBP) using 2021 data, which revealed a remarkable increase to 3162 GW-hour (GWh) compared to 1370 GWh in 2004. This significant growth not only highlights the region’s untapped renewable energy potential but also underscores the critical role of advanced methodologies in accurately assessing and forecasting energy resources over time. To forecast future potential, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were employed to estimate the BMBP of all provinces in the CAR up to 2035. Among these, Konya is projected to have the highest BMBP in 2035, with 919 GWh, contributing approximately 50 % of the electricity consumed by its habitations and 4.5 times the electricity expended for lighting. Additionally, Arc Geographical Information System (ArcGIS) was utilized to perform geographical and temporal analyses of the region, providing a comprehensive spatial perspective. Both the ArcGIS findings and the BMBP findings highlight the significant contributions of BMBP to renewable energy resources in the CAR, offering critical insights for shaping regional energy policies. Future research should expand to include biogas potential from other agricultural wastes in the region.