Frank Juma Ong’ondo , Shrinidhi Ambinakudige , Philista Adhiambo Malaki , Hafez Ahmad , Qingmin Meng , Domnic Kiprono Chesire , Kuria Anthony , Yahia Said
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Monitoring and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Using Remote Sensing and CA-ANN
Human-driven land cover change poses a significant challenge to the sustainability of protected areas worldwide. Monitoring these dynamics and projecting future trends is crucial for effective conservation strategies. This study uses Nairobi National Park and its surrounding areas in Kenya as a case study to assess land cover change from 2016 to 2023 and project trends through 2040. We applied Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques, using Landsat imagery classified with the Random Forest (RF) algorithm in Google Earth Engine (GEE), to map land cover across eight classes. We projected future changes using a cellular automata–artificial neural network model, achieving 84.4% accuracy. Results revealed significant increases in built-up areas and agricultural land, accompanied by declines in forest, shrubland, woodland, water bodies, and bare soil. Projections indicate continued urban expansion and woodland growth, while agricultural land, bare soil, water bodies, and forests will decrease sharply. These findings highlight the urgent need for integrated land use planning and proactive conservation policies to manage rapid urban growth while preserving the ecological functions of protected areas and their surrounding landscapes.
期刊介绍:
Rangeland Ecology & Management publishes all topics-including ecology, management, socioeconomic and policy-pertaining to global rangelands. The journal''s mission is to inform academics, ecosystem managers and policy makers of science-based information to promote sound rangeland stewardship. Author submissions are published in five manuscript categories: original research papers, high-profile forum topics, concept syntheses, as well as research and technical notes.
Rangelands represent approximately 50% of the Earth''s land area and provision multiple ecosystem services for large human populations. This expansive and diverse land area functions as coupled human-ecological systems. Knowledge of both social and biophysical system components and their interactions represent the foundation for informed rangeland stewardship. Rangeland Ecology & Management uniquely integrates information from multiple system components to address current and pending challenges confronting global rangelands.