基于遥感和CA-ANN的土地利用和土地覆盖监测与预测

IF 2.4 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q2 ECOLOGY
Frank Juma Ong’ondo , Shrinidhi Ambinakudige , Philista Adhiambo Malaki , Hafez Ahmad , Qingmin Meng , Domnic Kiprono Chesire , Kuria Anthony , Yahia Said
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人为驱动的土地覆盖变化对全球保护区的可持续性构成了重大挑战。监测这些动态和预测未来趋势对于有效的保护战略至关重要。本研究以肯尼亚内罗毕国家公园及其周边地区为例,评估了2016年至2023年的土地覆盖变化以及到2040年的项目趋势。我们应用地理信息系统(GIS)和遥感技术,利用谷歌Earth Engine (GEE)中随机森林(RF)算法分类的Landsat图像,绘制了8类土地覆盖图。我们使用元胞自动机-人工神经网络模型预测未来的变化,准确率达到84.4%。结果表明,建成区和农用地显著增加,森林、灌丛、林地、水体和裸地减少。预测表明,城市扩张和林地增长将继续,而农业用地、裸露土壤、水体和森林将急剧减少。这些发现突出表明,迫切需要进行综合土地利用规划和积极的保护政策,以管理快速的城市增长,同时保护保护区及其周围景观的生态功能。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Monitoring and Prediction of Land Use and Land Cover Using Remote Sensing and CA-ANN
Human-driven land cover change poses a significant challenge to the sustainability of protected areas worldwide. Monitoring these dynamics and projecting future trends is crucial for effective conservation strategies. This study uses Nairobi National Park and its surrounding areas in Kenya as a case study to assess land cover change from 2016 to 2023 and project trends through 2040. We applied Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing techniques, using Landsat imagery classified with the Random Forest (RF) algorithm in Google Earth Engine (GEE), to map land cover across eight classes. We projected future changes using a cellular automata–artificial neural network model, achieving 84.4% accuracy. Results revealed significant increases in built-up areas and agricultural land, accompanied by declines in forest, shrubland, woodland, water bodies, and bare soil. Projections indicate continued urban expansion and woodland growth, while agricultural land, bare soil, water bodies, and forests will decrease sharply. These findings highlight the urgent need for integrated land use planning and proactive conservation policies to manage rapid urban growth while preserving the ecological functions of protected areas and their surrounding landscapes.
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来源期刊
Rangeland Ecology & Management
Rangeland Ecology & Management 农林科学-环境科学
CiteScore
4.60
自引率
13.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
12-24 weeks
期刊介绍: Rangeland Ecology & Management publishes all topics-including ecology, management, socioeconomic and policy-pertaining to global rangelands. The journal''s mission is to inform academics, ecosystem managers and policy makers of science-based information to promote sound rangeland stewardship. Author submissions are published in five manuscript categories: original research papers, high-profile forum topics, concept syntheses, as well as research and technical notes. Rangelands represent approximately 50% of the Earth''s land area and provision multiple ecosystem services for large human populations. This expansive and diverse land area functions as coupled human-ecological systems. Knowledge of both social and biophysical system components and their interactions represent the foundation for informed rangeland stewardship. Rangeland Ecology & Management uniquely integrates information from multiple system components to address current and pending challenges confronting global rangelands.
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