1990年至2021年中国0-14岁儿童登革热负担趋势：来自2021年全球疾病负担研究的结果，以及到2035年的预测

Global health journal (Amsterdam, Netherlands) Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.glohj.2025.06.010

Luqiu Tao , Yanzheng Zou , Tao Liu , Gao Tan , Li Sun , Xiaoli Liu , Wei Wang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的14岁以下儿童极易感染登革热，患严重登革热疾病的风险更大。本研究旨在调查1990 - 2021年中国14岁以下儿童登革热负担的趋势，并预测2022 - 2035年的疾病负担。方法基于“2021年全球疾病负担研究”的数据集，收集1990年至2021年中国≤14岁登革热感染儿童的以下数据：登革热发病病例数和发病率、登革热流行病例数、登革热死亡人数和因登革热损失的伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。基于平均年变化百分比（AAPC）和年变化百分比检测疾病负担的趋势，并采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022 - 2035年的疾病负担。结果1990 - 2021年，中国≤14岁儿童登革热发病率和患病率均呈上升趋势（AAPC分别为5.42%和5.44%）；0.001)，而死亡率和DALYs率降低(AAPC分别= - 8.21%和- 7.55%,P <；0.001)。这种负担在性别之间具有可比性，男孩的发病率和流行率在数字上低于女孩。儿童的发病率和流行率最低，死亡率和伤残残疾率最高；5年。预计从2022年到2035年，发病率和患病率将增加；相反，预计在此期间死亡率和伤残调整生命年率将下降。结论1990 - 2021年，中国0 ~ 14岁儿童登革热病死率和DALYs明显下降，但发病率和患病率明显上升。针对这一高危人群，建议加强监测，开展充分的健康教育计划和预防干预措施。

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Trends in burdens of dengue fever among children aged 0‒14 years in China from 1990 to 2021: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, and projections up to 2035

Objective

Children below 14 years of age are highly vulnerable to dengue infection and are at a greater risk of developing severe dengue illness. This study aimed to investigate the trends in the burden of dengue fever among children below 14 years of age in China from 1990 to 2021 and to project the disease burden from 2022 to 2035.

Methods

Based on the datasets derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, the following data were collected from dengue-affected children aged ≤ 14 years in China from 1990 to 2021: number and rate of incident dengue cases, number of prevalent dengue cases, number of deaths due to dengue, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost due to dengue. The trends in disease burden were examined based on average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change, and the burdens were projected from 2022 to 2035 by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

Results

The incidence and prevalence of dengue fever were increased in children aged ≤ 14 years in China from 1990 to 2021 (AAPC = 5.42 % and 5.44 %, respectively, P < 0.001), while the mortality and DALYs rates were reduced (AAPC = −8.21 % and −7.55 %, respectively, P < 0.001). The burden was comparable between genders, with numerically lower incidence and prevalence in boys than in girls. The lowest incidence and prevalence and the highest mortality and DALYs rates were observed in children aged < 5 years. The incidence and prevalence rates were projected to increase from 2022 to 2035; in contrast, the mortality and DALYs rates were projected to decrease during this period.

Conclusions

Although the mortality and DALYs rates of dengue fever decreased significantly in children aged 0‒14 years in China from 1990 to 2021, the incidence and prevalence increased remarkably. Enhanced surveillance and ample health education programs and preventive interventions are recommended for targeting this high-risk population.

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来源期刊

Global health journal (Amsterdam, Netherlands) Public Health and Health Policy

CiteScore

5.00

自引率

0.00%

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