The Sources of Slow Declines in Agricultural Nutrient Leakage: Evidence From Sweden

We apply index decomposition methods to decompose nitrogen and phosphorus leakage trends from Swedish arable land. The results show considerable heterogeneity; changes in nutrient pollution coefficients (kg leakage/SEK of crop value produced) and crop rotations caused leakage to increase in some areas and decrease in others. Crucially, we find only modest pollution-decreasing technique effects, mainly driven by increased yields rather than reductions in per-hectare nutrient leakage. We argue that lax regulation of agricultural pollutants is one determining factor behind these results. Despite an increased focus on environmental considerations in agricultural policy, the cost of emitting has remained low.