燃料价格与通勤频率:探索大学生中已发现的和预期的变化

IF 6.1 Q1 GEOGRAPHY
Muhammad Abdullah , Nazam Ali , Muhammad Ashraf Javid , Muhammad Aamir Basheer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

最近燃料价格的飙升扰乱了全球的日常生活,交通成本对教育机会和学生留校造成了重大障碍。燃油费用的上涨可能会导致学生通勤频率的减少,尤其是那些社会经济背景较差的学生。本研究调查了燃料价格上涨对大学生通勤频率的影响,分为三个阶段:加息前阶段(2021年底)、当前加息阶段(2023年初)和预计的未来加息阶段(2023年中期以后)。数据通过问卷调查从巴基斯坦拉合尔的四所私立大学收集。研究分析了基于徒步旅行前和当前阶段差异的显示(实际)通勤频率变化,以及基于对未来徒步旅行阶段的既定意图的声明(预期)通勤频率变化。使用双变量假设检验检验了燃油价格阶段内和不同阶段的出行频率差异,而使用多项逻辑回归来确定跨阶段出行频率变化的重要预测因素,控制社会经济和人口变量的影响。假设检验表明,不同阶段的通勤行为存在显著差异,在未来的徒步旅行阶段,减少出行的意愿更强。在未来燃油价格的情况下,女学生和私家车车主减少出行的意愿明显更高,低收入学生也受到不成比例的影响。多元逻辑回归结果显示,性别和通勤距离与预期变化显著相关。与男生相比,女生表示愿意增加出行次数的可能性要小得多(相对于没有变化),这表明男生更有可能预计在未来的徒步旅行情景下,通勤次数会增加。此外,通勤距离5-10公里的学生预计减少出行的可能性是通勤距离超过10公里的学生的近三倍。这些发现强调了燃油价格上涨对学生流动性的不平等影响,并支持有针对性的交通政策的必要性,以确保公平获得高等教育。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Fuel prices and commuting frequencies: Exploring revealed and anticipated changes among university students
The recent surge in fuel prices has disrupted daily life globally, with transportation costs posing a significant barrier to educational access and student retention. Rising fuel expenses may lead to reduced commuting frequency among students, particularly affecting those from disadvantaged socio-economic backgrounds. This study investigates the effects of rising fuel prices on university students’ commuting frequency across three phases: a pre-hike phase (late 2021), a current hike phase (early 2023), and a projected future hike phase (beyond mid-2023). Data were collected via a questionnaire survey from four private universities in Lahore, Pakistan. Revealed (actual) commuting frequency changes, based on differences between the pre-hike and current hike phases, and stated (anticipated) commuting frequency changes, based on stated intentions for the future hike phase, were analyzed. Trip frequency differences within and across fuel price phases were examined using bivariate hypothesis testing, while multinomial logistic regression was employed to identify significant predictors of across-phase trip frequency changes, controlling for the influence of socio-economic and demographic variables. Hypothesis testing showed significant differences in commuting behavior across phases, with a stronger intention to reduce trips during the future hike phase. Female students and private vehicle owners reported a significantly higher intention to reduce trips under the future fuel price scenario, and low-income students were also disproportionately affected. Multinomial logistic regression revealed that gender and commuting distance were significantly associated with anticipated changes. Female students were significantly less likely than males to indicate an intention to increase trips (relative to no change), suggesting that male students were more likely to expect increased commuting under the future hike scenario. Additionally, students commuting 5–10 km were nearly three times more likely than those commuting over 10 km to anticipate reducing their trips. These findings highlight unequal impacts of fuel price increases on student mobility and support the need for targeted transportation policies to ensure equitable access to higher education.
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