贸易政策敏感性与全球股市回报：来自2016年美国总统大选的证据

IF 3.6 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Journal of Banking & Finance Pub Date : 2025-07-10 DOI:10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107517

Dien Giau Bui , Iftekhar Hasan , Chih-Yung Lin , Ngoc Thuy Mai , Chris Vaike

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文介绍了一种量化企业对美国与其贸易伙伴之间双边贸易流动变化的敏感性的新方法。我们利用2016年美国总统大选作为对贸易政策预期的外生冲击，并评估了52个国家公司的股市反应。我们的研究结果表明，贸易政策敏感性较高的公司在大选前后经历了更多的负股票回报。这些结果对于事件窗口、回报模型规范和贸易政策敏感性的替代估计的变化具有鲁棒性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Trade policy sensitivity and global stock returns: Evidence from the 2016 U.S. Presidential election

This paper introduces a novel measure to quantify firms’ sensitivity to shifts in bilateral trade flows between the United States and its trading partners. We exploit the 2016 U.S. presidential election as an exogenous shock to trade policy expectations and assess the stock market reactions of firms across 52 countries. Our findings indicate that firms with higher trade policy sensitivity experienced significantly more negative stock returns surrounding the election. These results are robust to variations in event windows, return model specifications, and alternative estimations of trade policy sensitivity.

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来源期刊

Journal of Banking & Finance Multiple-

CiteScore

6.40

自引率

5.40%

发文量

262

期刊介绍： The Journal of Banking and Finance (JBF) publishes theoretical and empirical research papers spanning all the major research fields in finance and banking. The aim of the Journal of Banking and Finance is to provide an outlet for the increasing flow of scholarly research concerning financial institutions and the money and capital markets within which they function. The Journal''s emphasis is on theoretical developments and their implementation, empirical, applied, and policy-oriented research in banking and other domestic and international financial institutions and markets. The Journal''s purpose is to improve communications between, and within, the academic and other research communities and policymakers and operational decision makers at financial institutions - private and public, national and international, and their regulators. The Journal is one of the largest Finance journals, with approximately 1500 new submissions per year, mainly in the following areas: Asset Management; Asset Pricing; Banking (Efficiency, Regulation, Risk Management, Solvency); Behavioural Finance; Capital Structure; Corporate Finance; Corporate Governance; Derivative Pricing and Hedging; Distribution Forecasting with Financial Applications; Entrepreneurial Finance; Empirical Finance; Financial Economics; Financial Markets (Alternative, Bonds, Currency, Commodity, Derivatives, Equity, Energy, Real Estate); FinTech; Fund Management; General Equilibrium Models; High-Frequency Trading; Intermediation; International Finance; Hedge Funds; Investments; Liquidity; Market Efficiency; Market Microstructure; Mergers and Acquisitions; Networks; Performance Analysis; Political Risk; Portfolio Optimization; Regulation of Financial Markets and Institutions; Risk Management and Analysis; Systemic Risk; Term Structure Models; Venture Capital.