Identification of risk factors and pathways of mangrove carbon sink projects: From perspective of supply

Mangrove carbon sink is a strategic way to solve the problem of climate change, and developing it into a project is an important carrier to realize its value, but the risks in the project development process will affect the utilization of mangrove carbon sinks. From the perspective of the supply entities, this article divided the entire life cycle of mangrove carbon sink projects into five stages: decision stage, design stage, construction stage, verification and filing stage, and operation and maintenance stage. With the goal of achieving project success, structural equation model was hereby established, and the impact paths and coefficients of 61 risk factors in the entire life cycle of mangrove carbon sink projects were obtained, and the key risk factors and their stages were clarified accordingly. The research results indicate that: (1) different life cycle stages exhibit different risk impact paths and coefficients, with the design stage and the operation and maintenance stage bearing the greatest impact of risk in the project; (2) for mangrove carbon sink projects, policy risks, technical risks, and market risks are the three major types of risks that require special attention; (3) about 1/4 of all risk factors belong to the category of first level risk. These research results can provide a theoretical basis for the effective implementation of risk management plans for mangrove carbon sink projects, so as to ensure greater project effectiveness, promote the development of mangrove carbon sink projects, and ultimately contribute to the realization of the goal of carbon neutrality.