{"title":"低报残疾的贝叶斯模型:来自孟加拉国全国家庭调查的性别见解。","authors":"Maiko Sakamoto, Nanami Kakuta","doi":"10.1016/j.dhjo.2025.101922","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>According to the World Health Organization, about 16 % of the global population has a disability, with many residing in developing countries. The Washington Group (WG) on Disability Statistics recommends the WG Short Set on Functioning to foster consistent, internationally comparable measures. However, this data is subject to biases due to societal misunderstandings and misreporting, including false positives and, more commonly, false negatives, particularly in developing countries.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>This paper examines discrepancies between reported and actual numbers of persons with disabilities and aims to advance methodological approaches and highlight the challenges faced by persons with disabilities in Bangladesh.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We employ a classification error modeling framework with a binary response variable and a Bayesian approach to estimate the true percentage of persons with disabilities and investigate associations with social variables. The 2016 Household Income and Expenditure Survey from Bangladesh serves as our case study.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Bayesian analysis suggests a prevalence of 7.71 %-4.8 times higher than the raw estimates-with a notable false negative rate of 0.79 under the WG's initially recommended guidelines, which define persons with \"at least a lot of difficulty\" as disabled. The rate drops to 0.33 when \"some difficulty\" is also included. The findings underscore the detrimental effects of disability on educational attainment, earning capacity, and marital experiences, highlighting the need for targeted support, especially for male persons with disabilities up to the junior secondary level.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study emphasizes the importance of a deeper understanding of the complexities of disability data and the societal structures that influence its reporting to inform effective policy and support mechanisms.</p>","PeriodicalId":49300,"journal":{"name":"Disability and Health Journal","volume":" ","pages":"101922"},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Bayesian modeling of underreported disabilities: Gender insights from the Bangladesh national household survey.\",\"authors\":\"Maiko Sakamoto, Nanami Kakuta\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.dhjo.2025.101922\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>According to the World Health Organization, about 16 % of the global population has a disability, with many residing in developing countries. The Washington Group (WG) on Disability Statistics recommends the WG Short Set on Functioning to foster consistent, internationally comparable measures. However, this data is subject to biases due to societal misunderstandings and misreporting, including false positives and, more commonly, false negatives, particularly in developing countries.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>This paper examines discrepancies between reported and actual numbers of persons with disabilities and aims to advance methodological approaches and highlight the challenges faced by persons with disabilities in Bangladesh.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We employ a classification error modeling framework with a binary response variable and a Bayesian approach to estimate the true percentage of persons with disabilities and investigate associations with social variables. The 2016 Household Income and Expenditure Survey from Bangladesh serves as our case study.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Bayesian analysis suggests a prevalence of 7.71 %-4.8 times higher than the raw estimates-with a notable false negative rate of 0.79 under the WG's initially recommended guidelines, which define persons with \\\"at least a lot of difficulty\\\" as disabled. The rate drops to 0.33 when \\\"some difficulty\\\" is also included. The findings underscore the detrimental effects of disability on educational attainment, earning capacity, and marital experiences, highlighting the need for targeted support, especially for male persons with disabilities up to the junior secondary level.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study emphasizes the importance of a deeper understanding of the complexities of disability data and the societal structures that influence its reporting to inform effective policy and support mechanisms.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49300,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Disability and Health Journal\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"101922\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Disability and Health Journal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dhjo.2025.101922\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Disability and Health Journal","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dhjo.2025.101922","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Bayesian modeling of underreported disabilities: Gender insights from the Bangladesh national household survey.
Background: According to the World Health Organization, about 16 % of the global population has a disability, with many residing in developing countries. The Washington Group (WG) on Disability Statistics recommends the WG Short Set on Functioning to foster consistent, internationally comparable measures. However, this data is subject to biases due to societal misunderstandings and misreporting, including false positives and, more commonly, false negatives, particularly in developing countries.
Objective: This paper examines discrepancies between reported and actual numbers of persons with disabilities and aims to advance methodological approaches and highlight the challenges faced by persons with disabilities in Bangladesh.
Methods: We employ a classification error modeling framework with a binary response variable and a Bayesian approach to estimate the true percentage of persons with disabilities and investigate associations with social variables. The 2016 Household Income and Expenditure Survey from Bangladesh serves as our case study.
Results: Bayesian analysis suggests a prevalence of 7.71 %-4.8 times higher than the raw estimates-with a notable false negative rate of 0.79 under the WG's initially recommended guidelines, which define persons with "at least a lot of difficulty" as disabled. The rate drops to 0.33 when "some difficulty" is also included. The findings underscore the detrimental effects of disability on educational attainment, earning capacity, and marital experiences, highlighting the need for targeted support, especially for male persons with disabilities up to the junior secondary level.
Conclusions: This study emphasizes the importance of a deeper understanding of the complexities of disability data and the societal structures that influence its reporting to inform effective policy and support mechanisms.
期刊介绍:
Disability and Health Journal is a scientific, scholarly, and multidisciplinary journal for reporting original contributions that advance knowledge in disability and health. Topics may be related to global health, quality of life, and specific health conditions as they relate to disability. Such contributions include:
• Reports of empirical research on the characteristics of persons with disabilities, environment, health outcomes, and determinants of health
• Reports of empirical research on the Systematic or other evidence-based reviews and tightly conceived theoretical interpretations of research literature
• Reports of empirical research on the Evaluative research on new interventions, technologies, and programs
• Reports of empirical research on the Reports on issues or policies affecting the health and/or quality of life for persons with disabilities, using a scientific base.