低报残疾的贝叶斯模型:来自孟加拉国全国家庭调查的性别见解。

IF 3.3 2区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES
Maiko Sakamoto, Nanami Kakuta
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:据世界卫生组织统计,全球约有16%的人口患有残疾,其中许多人居住在发展中国家。残疾统计华盛顿小组(WG)建议WG功能短集,以促进一致的、国际可比的衡量标准。然而,由于社会误解和误报,这些数据存在偏见,包括假阳性,更常见的是假阴性,特别是在发展中国家。目的:本文检查报告和实际残疾人人数之间的差异,旨在推进方法方法,突出孟加拉国残疾人面临的挑战。方法:我们采用带有二元响应变量的分类误差建模框架和贝叶斯方法来估计残疾人的真实百分比,并研究与社会变量的关联。2016年孟加拉国家庭收入和支出调查作为我们的案例研究。结果:贝叶斯分析表明,患病率为7.71%——比原始估计高4.8倍——根据工作组最初推荐的指导方针,将“至少有很多困难”的人定义为残疾人,假阴性率为0.79。如果把“某些难度”也算进去,这个比率就降到了0.33。研究结果强调了残疾对教育成就、收入能力和婚姻经历的不利影响,强调了有针对性的支持的必要性,特别是对初中以下的男性残疾人士。结论:本研究强调了深入了解残疾数据的复杂性和影响其报告的社会结构的重要性,以便为有效的政策和支持机制提供信息。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Bayesian modeling of underreported disabilities: Gender insights from the Bangladesh national household survey.

Background: According to the World Health Organization, about 16 % of the global population has a disability, with many residing in developing countries. The Washington Group (WG) on Disability Statistics recommends the WG Short Set on Functioning to foster consistent, internationally comparable measures. However, this data is subject to biases due to societal misunderstandings and misreporting, including false positives and, more commonly, false negatives, particularly in developing countries.

Objective: This paper examines discrepancies between reported and actual numbers of persons with disabilities and aims to advance methodological approaches and highlight the challenges faced by persons with disabilities in Bangladesh.

Methods: We employ a classification error modeling framework with a binary response variable and a Bayesian approach to estimate the true percentage of persons with disabilities and investigate associations with social variables. The 2016 Household Income and Expenditure Survey from Bangladesh serves as our case study.

Results: Bayesian analysis suggests a prevalence of 7.71 %-4.8 times higher than the raw estimates-with a notable false negative rate of 0.79 under the WG's initially recommended guidelines, which define persons with "at least a lot of difficulty" as disabled. The rate drops to 0.33 when "some difficulty" is also included. The findings underscore the detrimental effects of disability on educational attainment, earning capacity, and marital experiences, highlighting the need for targeted support, especially for male persons with disabilities up to the junior secondary level.

Conclusions: This study emphasizes the importance of a deeper understanding of the complexities of disability data and the societal structures that influence its reporting to inform effective policy and support mechanisms.

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来源期刊
Disability and Health Journal
Disability and Health Journal HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES-PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
6.70%
发文量
134
审稿时长
34 days
期刊介绍: Disability and Health Journal is a scientific, scholarly, and multidisciplinary journal for reporting original contributions that advance knowledge in disability and health. Topics may be related to global health, quality of life, and specific health conditions as they relate to disability. Such contributions include: • Reports of empirical research on the characteristics of persons with disabilities, environment, health outcomes, and determinants of health • Reports of empirical research on the Systematic or other evidence-based reviews and tightly conceived theoretical interpretations of research literature • Reports of empirical research on the Evaluative research on new interventions, technologies, and programs • Reports of empirical research on the Reports on issues or policies affecting the health and/or quality of life for persons with disabilities, using a scientific base.
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