Fine-scale distribution modeling of ocellated lizard (Timon lepidus), in a peri-urban landscape

The peri-urban space is highly dynamic and concentrates antagonistic pressures of urban development and biodiversity preservation. The unstable nature of this transitional landscape leads to fast changes in the distribution of anthropic and natural resources. For species able to inhabit peri-urban landscapes and to exploit anthropic resources, this raises the challenge to react to unpredictable land development trajectories. As a result, guiding conservation in these environments requires a comprehensive vision of the impacts of land-use changes at scales relevant to population ecology and development planning. Here we investigate the environmental factors of distribution of the ocellated lizard Timon lepidus (Daudin, 1802) (Sauria, Lacertidae), an endangered species, in a peri-urban landscape exhibiting heterogeneous levels of urbanization. We used species distribution modeling to identify at fine spatial resolution (1) the distribution of natural cavities, as important components of the habitat niche of this cavity-dependent species and (2) the urban and natural features affecting species occurrence. We then used the resulting model to assess the potential impacts of alternate land development schemes on species probability of presence. We found that shelter availability and urbanization level are important predictors of habitat suitability. The particular importance of anthropic shelters illustrates how anthropic structures play a predominant role in the species presence in this peri-urban environment. The projections of the species distribution according to future land development scenarios demonstrate the risks associated with intensifying urbanization and with anthropic shelter resource disappearance through the modernization of human infrastructures; but also the potential, as a conservation measure, of the creation of artificial shelters.