{"title":"信息错觉:不同数量的信息和股票价格估计","authors":"Andreas Oehler, Matthias Horn, Stefan Wendt","doi":"10.1002/for.3268","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>We initiate a questionnaire-based stock price forecast competition to analyze participants' perception of different amounts of information and the impact on stock price estimates. The results show that providing more information increases the perceived amount of relevant information but does not alter participants' stock price estimates and their accuracy. Individual participants' characteristics, such as gender, financial knowledge, or overconfidence, do not affect these findings. This means that the added information acts as placebic information and leads to information illusion. However, the added information has an impact on individual expectations about the stock price forecast competition itself and leads less overconfident investors to decrease their expectations regarding payoff and chances to win a prize. Our findings provide implications for practitioners and researchers alike. Both regulators and policy makers should consider that placebic information can significantly impact investors' perception, and, therefore, regulation on information that is provided to retail investors should focus on relevant and avoid irrelevant information. Researchers should be aware that placebic information asymmetrically influences expectations of participants in experiments who show different levels of overconfidence.</p>","PeriodicalId":47835,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Forecasting","volume":"44 5","pages":"1734-1754"},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2025-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3268","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Information Illusion: Different Amounts of Information and Stock Price Estimates\",\"authors\":\"Andreas Oehler, Matthias Horn, Stefan Wendt\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/for.3268\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>We initiate a questionnaire-based stock price forecast competition to analyze participants' perception of different amounts of information and the impact on stock price estimates. The results show that providing more information increases the perceived amount of relevant information but does not alter participants' stock price estimates and their accuracy. Individual participants' characteristics, such as gender, financial knowledge, or overconfidence, do not affect these findings. This means that the added information acts as placebic information and leads to information illusion. However, the added information has an impact on individual expectations about the stock price forecast competition itself and leads less overconfident investors to decrease their expectations regarding payoff and chances to win a prize. Our findings provide implications for practitioners and researchers alike. Both regulators and policy makers should consider that placebic information can significantly impact investors' perception, and, therefore, regulation on information that is provided to retail investors should focus on relevant and avoid irrelevant information. Researchers should be aware that placebic information asymmetrically influences expectations of participants in experiments who show different levels of overconfidence.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47835,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Forecasting\",\"volume\":\"44 5\",\"pages\":\"1734-1754\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-03-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/for.3268\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Forecasting\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3268\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Forecasting","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/for.3268","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Information Illusion: Different Amounts of Information and Stock Price Estimates
We initiate a questionnaire-based stock price forecast competition to analyze participants' perception of different amounts of information and the impact on stock price estimates. The results show that providing more information increases the perceived amount of relevant information but does not alter participants' stock price estimates and their accuracy. Individual participants' characteristics, such as gender, financial knowledge, or overconfidence, do not affect these findings. This means that the added information acts as placebic information and leads to information illusion. However, the added information has an impact on individual expectations about the stock price forecast competition itself and leads less overconfident investors to decrease their expectations regarding payoff and chances to win a prize. Our findings provide implications for practitioners and researchers alike. Both regulators and policy makers should consider that placebic information can significantly impact investors' perception, and, therefore, regulation on information that is provided to retail investors should focus on relevant and avoid irrelevant information. Researchers should be aware that placebic information asymmetrically influences expectations of participants in experiments who show different levels of overconfidence.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.