Carrots and sticks: How voter loyalty and electoral opportunities shape parties' policy priorities in Europe

Political parties often adjust their policy agendas in response to changing electoral landscapes, balancing the need to appeal to new voters against the importance of retaining loyal supporters. While these patterns are generally well-documented in the literature, the specific impact of voter availability on the electoral market remains underexamined. This article investigates how electoral opportunities – i.e., potential to mobilize new voters – and loyalty – i.e., likelihood of retaining current supporters – influence parties' decisions to expand or narrow their policy focus. To analyze this, the study integrates three decades of population data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems and European Election Studies with data on parties' issue focus obtained from the Manifesto Project. The analysis shows that parties strategically balance their focus between core and peripheral issues based on the anticipated utility of each approach. This strategy, however, depends on the stability of voter loyalty: expansion into new issues occurs primarily when voter loyalty is robust, although strong opportunities alone can also encourage agenda broadening. These findings contribute to understanding the calculated risks parties take in adjusting their issue attention and highlight why policy adjustments often backfire; namely, when misaligned with voters' availability on the market. This study speaks to the literature on party competition and representation in Europe, illuminating how electoral dynamics shape parties' policy focus.