Big impacts with small efforts: spatial prioritization for amphibian conservation in the Sierra Madre del Sur, Mexico

Amphibian survival is imperiled by increasing anthropogenic disturbance and insufficient conservation efforts. Spatial prioritization is an essential tool that allows for optimization of scarce conservation resources and the identification of protected area networks that will maintain their effectiveness in the future. This study focuses on amphibians in the Sierra Madre del Sur, a Mexican biogeographic province with high amphibian species richness and endemism. We aim to (i) assess the performance of the current protected area network and (ii) identify potential expansion areas of the current network, considering their persistence in time. Using occurrence data of 107 species, we estimated distributions with species distribution models and buffers. Species were weighted according to their national and international conservation status, and future land-use change scenarios were incorporated to identify priority areas using Zonation software. Results revealed poor performance of the current protected areas network for amphibian conservation, failing to cover any of the top 2% of amphibian priority areas. Many protected areas fall outside the top 30% priority, indicating inadequate location of protected areas for amphibian conservation. However, minimal network expansions could significantly enhance protection for high-risk species, particularly for the Plethodontidae family. Our study highlights the potential of systematic conservation planning in improving efficient amphibian conservation, even with minimal expansions of key areas. Finally, our findings provide important insights into amphibian conservation in a region with high levels of endemism that has often been neglected in terms of biodiversity conservation efforts.