Beyond left and right: The role of system trust in COVID-19 attitudes and behaviours across eight western countries

During the COVID-19 pandemic, public opinion regarding restrictions and lockdowns was quickly characterized by significant disagreement. In a societal crisis such as COVID-19, it is important to understand the drivers behind citizens’ attitudes and behaviours. Political disagreement related to COVID-19 restrictions and lockdowns has often been interpreted as an ideological or partisan divide along the left-right dimension of political opinion. Here, we argue that there is more to unpack. There is increasing awareness that public opinion is structured by both left-right orientation and trust in the system. In this paper, we examine the divide in COVID-19 attitudes and behaviours and compare the influence of ideology and system trust as drivers across countries and across time during the pandemic. Based on monthly surveys from eight countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, France and Italy) from September 2020 to July 2021 (total sample of 49,414 respondents), we show that citizens with right-wing ideologies and those who do not trust ‘the system’ perceived a lower threat from the coronavirus, were less supportive of government measures against the virus, report having changed their behaviour less and report lower intentions to vaccinate against COVID-19 compared to citizens with left-wing ideologies and those with high system trust. These results are stable across time and across countries. We also find that behavioural differences are larger between those who support the system and those who do not than between those with right- and left-wing ideological outlooks, respectively. This implies that system trust is at least as important as ideology in terms of shaping cleavages in COVID-19 attitudes and behaviours. The results suggest that in order to increase public support for societal responses during a crisis, it is not only important to appeal to both sides of the ideological spectrum, but also to appeal to those who do not trust ‘the system’.