气候风险与地方政府债务决策

IF 6.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

Research in International Business and Finance Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.ribaf.2025.103010

Li Bin, Wang Chensheng, Lv Wendai

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文利用2010-2020年中国277个地级及以上城市的数据，全面探讨了气候风险对地方政府债务策略的影响，并分析了影响机制。研究发现：(1)气候风险迫使地方政府采取更激进的债务策略，从而影响地方政府债务风险的缓解过程。(2)机制分析结果表明，在气候风险增加的影响下，投资需求的增加和收益路径的变窄是驱动地方政府债务决策的主要机制。③气候风险对地方政府债务策略的空间溢出效应显著。(4)异质性分析表明，气候风险对地方政府债务策略的影响程度在不同的治理背景下存在较大差异，凸显了多重且往往相互冲突的政策目标对地方债务治理的深层影响。本研究的结论为在气候变化背景下管理政府债务风险提供了有价值的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Climate risk and local government debt decisions

In this study, data from 277 cities at the prefecture level and above in China for the 2010–2020 period are utilized to comprehensively explore the impacts of climate risk on local government debt strategies and analyze the underlying mechanisms. The findings are as follows: (1) Climate risk compels local governments to adopt more aggressive debt strategies, thus influencing the process of mitigating local government debt risk. (2) The mechanistic analysis results reveal that the increase in investment demands and the narrowing of revenue pathways are the primary mechanisms driving local government debt decisions under the influence of an increased climate risk. (3) Significant spatial spillover effects arise as climate risk influences local government debt strategies. (4) The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the magnitude of climate risk's impact on local government debt strategies varies considerably across different governance contexts, highlighting the deeper effects of multiple and often conflicting policy objectives on local debt governance. The conclusions of this research provide valuable insights for managing government debt risk within the context of climate change.

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来源期刊

Research in International Business and Finance BUSINESS, FINANCE-

CiteScore

11.20

自引率

9.20%

发文量

240

期刊介绍： Research in International Business and Finance (RIBAF) seeks to consolidate its position as a premier scholarly vehicle of academic finance. The Journal publishes high quality, insightful, well-written papers that explore current and new issues in international finance. Papers that foster dialogue, innovation, and intellectual risk-taking in financial studies; as well as shed light on the interaction between finance and broader societal concerns are particularly appreciated. The Journal welcomes submissions that seek to expand the boundaries of academic finance and otherwise challenge the discipline. Papers studying finance using a variety of methodologies; as well as interdisciplinary studies will be considered for publication. Papers that examine topical issues using extensive international data sets are welcome. Single-country studies can also be considered for publication provided that they develop novel methodological and theoretical approaches or fall within the Journal''s priority themes. It is especially important that single-country studies communicate to the reader why the particular chosen country is especially relevant to the issue being investigated. [...] The scope of topics that are most interesting to RIBAF readers include the following: -Financial markets and institutions -Financial practices and sustainability -The impact of national culture on finance -The impact of formal and informal institutions on finance -Privatizations, public financing, and nonprofit issues in finance -Interdisciplinary financial studies -Finance and international development -International financial crises and regulation -Financialization studies -International financial integration and architecture -Behavioral aspects in finance -Consumer finance -Methodologies and conceptualization issues related to finance