2030年糖尿病过早死亡率预测:对健康中国2030目标的地方评估。

IF 3.9 3区 医学 Q2 MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
Hongrui Zhao, Zhenping Zhao, Xuan Yang, Yuchang Zhou, Ainan Jia, Jiangmei Liu, Peng Yin, Yamin Bai, Zhenxing Yang, Maigeng Zhou, Xiujuan Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

“健康中国2030”规划的目标是到2030年将糖尿病导致的过早死亡减少30%。然而,自该行动计划发布以来,一直缺乏对糖尿病过早死亡的评估。本研究使用了2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据,按性别、省份和亚型计算了1990年至2021年糖尿病的过早死亡人数。我们利用1990年至2021年不同性别、省份和亚型的平均年变化百分比(AAPC)探讨了早亡的时间趋势。此外,我们根据2010年至2021年的平均年变化率预测了中国及其各省到2030年的糖尿病过早死亡率。糖尿病的过早死亡率首先呈缓慢上升趋势,从1990年的0.5%上升到2004年的0.6%,然后下降到2021年,过早死亡率为0.4%。到2030年,只有福建(30.3%)能够达到预期的减少水平,只有7个省份达到了女性的目标,没有一个省份达到了男性的目标。内陆和沿海地区下降程度差异较大,地域差异明显,应注重医疗资源平衡。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Premature mortality projection for diabetes to 2030: a subnational evaluation towards the Healthy China 2030 Goals.

The Healthy China 2030 Plan set the goal of reducing premature deaths from diabetes by 30% by 2030. However, there has been a lack of assessment of premature mortality for diabetes since the action plan was issued. This study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, calculated the premature deaths for diabetes by sex, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. We explored the temporal trend of premature mortality using the average annual percent change (AAPC) for different sexes, provinces, and subtypes from 1990 to 2021. Furthermore, we predicted premature mortality for diabetes through 2030 for China and its provinces according to the average annual change rate from 2010 to 2021. There was a first slow upward trend in premature mortality for diabetes from 0.5% in 1990 to 0.6% in 2004, and then a decline until 2021 with premature mortality of 0.4%. By 2030, only Fujian (30.3%) will achieve the desired level of reduction, with only seven provinces meeting the target for females and none for males. There is a large range in the degree of decline between inland and coastal regions, showing obvious geographic differences, and there should be a focus on balancing medical resources.

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来源期刊
Frontiers of Medicine
Frontiers of Medicine ONCOLOGYMEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL&-MEDICINE, RESEARCH & EXPERIMENTAL
CiteScore
18.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
800
期刊介绍: Frontiers of Medicine is an international general medical journal sponsored by the Ministry of Education of China. The journal is jointly published by the Higher Education Press and Springer. Since the first issue of 2010, this journal has been indexed in PubMed/MEDLINE. Frontiers of Medicine is dedicated to publishing original research and review articles on the latest advances in clinical and basic medicine with a focus on epidemiology, traditional Chinese medicine, translational research, healthcare, public health and health policies.
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