E-government and ideological polarization: A cross-national study of political communication

This study examines the reciprocal relationship between e-government development and ideological polarization over a fourteen-year period, utilizing panel data from 2008 to 2022. We initially identified 314 country-year observations across 157 nations, of which 35 countries provided complete data on e-government capacity, ideological polarization, liberal democracy, and GDP per capita in both waves. Employing a two-wave cross-lagged panel model estimated via structural equation modeling (SEM) in R (lavaan, with FIML for missing data), we examined autoregressive stability and cross-lagged effects, both with and without controls for regime quality and economic development. Our results demonstrate strong temporal stability in both e-government (β ~ .76) and polarization (β ~ .70). Crucially, higher e-government capacity in 2008 predicts significantly lower polarization in 2022 (β ~ −.61, p < .01), an effect that persists after controlling for liberal democracy and GDP. In contrast, the reverse path—from 2008 polarization to 2022 e-government—remains insignificant (β ∼ -0.14, p > 0.10). Change-score analyses further reveal no direct association between EGDI growth and polarization change once economic growth is controlled for. These findings support a Theory of Digital Moderation, positioning e-government as an active agent in depolarizing political discourse. The study underscores the strategic value of investing in transparent, participatory digital governance to foster democratic cohesion.