Evaluating multi-dimensional risks embodied in the global supply chain of lithium-ion batteries

Driven by the development of e-mobility and renewable power, recent years saw a surging demand for battery materials along with concerns about the supply chain stability. Previous studies have assessed such risks from multiple perspectives while the whole picture is still unclear. This study evaluated global supply chain risks in the lithium-ion battery (LIB) industry, covering 238 countries and regions and 15 key LIB-related commodities. We integrated three dimensions to develop a risk assessment model: the probability of production disruptions, competition risk, and vulnerability, offering a holistic view of both supply- and demand-side risks. The results reveal that lithium hydroxide and LIB exhibit the highest supply chain risks, primarily due to concentrated production and widely dispersed demand. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the United States face elevated supply chain risks. Early adopters of low-cobalt technologies have somewhat mitigated risks by reducing their exposure to resource competition. Based on these findings, the study underscores the importance of diversifying supply chains and accelerating technological transitions. The efforts to assess and improve resilience at high geographic and technical granularity are further highlighted.