How urbanization shapes rural ageing in China? Evidence from spatial Durbin and threshold regression models

Population migration from rural to urban areas is a key component of urbanization and a major driver of rural ageing. However, the specific impact of urbanization on rural ageing remains insufficiently understood. This study utilizes prefecture-level panel data from China spanning 2000 to 2020 to examine this relationship through spatial Durbin and threshold regression models. The results reveal that both urbanization rate and rural ageing level in China increased significantly during the study period, with notable spatial heterogeneity, characterized by high-high and low-low clustering patterns across the prefecture-level divisions. Urbanization significantly exacerbates rural ageing by accelerating the out-migration of working-age population, reducing fertility rates and extending life expectancy, with evident spatial spillover effects. The urbanization of neighboring areas further contributes to local rural ageing through mechanisms such as resource siphoning and institutional transmission. Threshold regression results indicate a nonlinear relationship, with the marginal impact of urbanization on rural ageing increasing significantly once the urbanization rate surpasses the two critical thresholds of 26.39% and 66.02%. Based on these findings, this study suggests that mitigating the rural ageing trap and promoting urban-rural integrated development will require measures such as optimizing urbanization strategies, enhancing regional coordination, and adopting phased and differentiated policy interventions.