Jia-Xin Nie, Qin Xie, Yan Yuan, Mei-Yuan Liu, Ji-Ke Du, Nan Li, Qing-Feng Zou
{"title":"总结直肠癌和早发性结直肠癌的发病率上升：到2031年的负担、危险因素和预测的全球视角","authors":"Jia-Xin Nie, Qin Xie, Yan Yuan, Mei-Yuan Liu, Ji-Ke Du, Nan Li, Qing-Feng Zou","doi":"10.1007/s12029-025-01257-1","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The occurrence of colorectal cancer in those under 50 has significantly increased in recent decades. This study assesses the burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) and early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC), along with associated risk factors, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, and projects incidence and mortality rates for 2031.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data on prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors were retrieved from the GBD 2021. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis, and projections to 2031 were made with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The number of new CRC cases globally was 2,194,143, of which EO-CRC accounted for 211,890 cases. Both CRC (AAPC 0.20) and EO-CRC (AAPC 0.99) demonstrated global increases from 1990 to 2021, with EO-CRC showing a sharper rise. The most significant increases in EO-CRC incidence, mortality, and DALYs occurred in America. Projected EO-CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2031 are 6.70 and 2.57 per 100,000 individuals, respectively. Major risk factors for CRC and EO-CRC DALYs included diets low in milk and calcium, high red meat intake, and elevated BMI.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study highlights the growing EO-CRC burden, particularly in America, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address dietary and lifestyle risk factors. Projections indicate a continued rise in EO-CRC incidence and mortality by 2031, underscoring the urgency for public health action to mitigate this trend. The occurrence of colorectal cancer in those under 50 has significantly increased globally from 1990 to 2021, with notable regional variations. Our study assesses the current burden of CRC and EO-CRC using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021, identifies associated risk factors, and projects incidence and mortality trends through 2031 using ARIMA models. These findings offer a precise measurement of the EO-CRC burden and underscore the necessity of identifying and addressing at-risk people to effectively mitigate this escalating health concern.</p>","PeriodicalId":15895,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer","volume":"56 1","pages":"138"},"PeriodicalIF":1.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Rising Incidence of Total and Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer: A Global Perspective on Burden, Risk Factors, and Projections to 2031.\",\"authors\":\"Jia-Xin Nie, Qin Xie, Yan Yuan, Mei-Yuan Liu, Ji-Ke Du, Nan Li, Qing-Feng Zou\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s12029-025-01257-1\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The occurrence of colorectal cancer in those under 50 has significantly increased in recent decades. This study assesses the burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) and early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC), along with associated risk factors, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, and projects incidence and mortality rates for 2031.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data on prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors were retrieved from the GBD 2021. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis, and projections to 2031 were made with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The number of new CRC cases globally was 2,194,143, of which EO-CRC accounted for 211,890 cases. Both CRC (AAPC 0.20) and EO-CRC (AAPC 0.99) demonstrated global increases from 1990 to 2021, with EO-CRC showing a sharper rise. The most significant increases in EO-CRC incidence, mortality, and DALYs occurred in America. Projected EO-CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2031 are 6.70 and 2.57 per 100,000 individuals, respectively. Major risk factors for CRC and EO-CRC DALYs included diets low in milk and calcium, high red meat intake, and elevated BMI.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study highlights the growing EO-CRC burden, particularly in America, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address dietary and lifestyle risk factors. Projections indicate a continued rise in EO-CRC incidence and mortality by 2031, underscoring the urgency for public health action to mitigate this trend. The occurrence of colorectal cancer in those under 50 has significantly increased globally from 1990 to 2021, with notable regional variations. Our study assesses the current burden of CRC and EO-CRC using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021, identifies associated risk factors, and projects incidence and mortality trends through 2031 using ARIMA models. These findings offer a precise measurement of the EO-CRC burden and underscore the necessity of identifying and addressing at-risk people to effectively mitigate this escalating health concern.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":15895,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer\",\"volume\":\"56 1\",\"pages\":\"138\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-18\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12029-025-01257-1\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s12029-025-01257-1","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Rising Incidence of Total and Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer: A Global Perspective on Burden, Risk Factors, and Projections to 2031.
Background: The occurrence of colorectal cancer in those under 50 has significantly increased in recent decades. This study assesses the burden of colorectal cancer (CRC) and early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC), along with associated risk factors, using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, and projects incidence and mortality rates for 2031.
Methods: Data on prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and risk factors were retrieved from the GBD 2021. The average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis, and projections to 2031 were made with Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models.
Results: The number of new CRC cases globally was 2,194,143, of which EO-CRC accounted for 211,890 cases. Both CRC (AAPC 0.20) and EO-CRC (AAPC 0.99) demonstrated global increases from 1990 to 2021, with EO-CRC showing a sharper rise. The most significant increases in EO-CRC incidence, mortality, and DALYs occurred in America. Projected EO-CRC incidence and mortality rates for 2031 are 6.70 and 2.57 per 100,000 individuals, respectively. Major risk factors for CRC and EO-CRC DALYs included diets low in milk and calcium, high red meat intake, and elevated BMI.
Conclusions: This study highlights the growing EO-CRC burden, particularly in America, emphasizing the need for targeted interventions to address dietary and lifestyle risk factors. Projections indicate a continued rise in EO-CRC incidence and mortality by 2031, underscoring the urgency for public health action to mitigate this trend. The occurrence of colorectal cancer in those under 50 has significantly increased globally from 1990 to 2021, with notable regional variations. Our study assesses the current burden of CRC and EO-CRC using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021, identifies associated risk factors, and projects incidence and mortality trends through 2031 using ARIMA models. These findings offer a precise measurement of the EO-CRC burden and underscore the necessity of identifying and addressing at-risk people to effectively mitigate this escalating health concern.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer is a multidisciplinary medium for the publication of novel research pertaining to cancers arising from the gastrointestinal tract.The journal is dedicated to the most rapid publication possible.The journal publishes papers in all relevant fields, emphasizing those studies that are helpful in understanding and treating cancers affecting the esophagus, stomach, liver, gallbladder and biliary tree, pancreas, small bowel, large bowel, rectum, and anus. In addition, the Journal of Gastrointestinal Cancer publishes basic and translational scientific information from studies providing insight into the etiology and progression of cancers affecting these organs. New insights are provided from diverse areas of research such as studies exploring pre-neoplastic states, risk factors, epidemiology, genetics, preclinical therapeutics, surgery, radiation therapy, novel medical therapeutics, clinical trials, and outcome studies.In addition to reports of original clinical and experimental studies, the journal also publishes: case reports, state-of-the-art reviews on topics of immediate interest or importance; invited articles analyzing particular areas of pancreatic research and knowledge; perspectives in which critical evaluation and conflicting opinions about current topics may be expressed; meeting highlights that summarize important points presented at recent meetings; abstracts of symposia and conferences; book reviews; hypotheses; Letters to the Editors; and other items of special interest, including:Complex Cases in GI Oncology: This is a new initiative to provide a forum to review and discuss the history and management of complex and involved gastrointestinal oncology cases. The format will be similar to a teaching case conference where a case vignette is presented and is followed by a series of questions and discussion points. A brief reference list supporting the points made in discussion would be expected.
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