Yan Guo PhD, Xiaoyu Zhang MS, Wei Li PhD, Yaxuan Zhou MS, Yuqian Zhang MS, Mei Yang PhD
{"title":"中国老年人体重指数与糖尿病风险的变化轨迹：一项10年的纵向研究。","authors":"Yan Guo PhD, Xiaoyu Zhang MS, Wei Li PhD, Yaxuan Zhou MS, Yuqian Zhang MS, Mei Yang PhD","doi":"10.1111/dom.16530","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Aims</h3>\n \n <p>This study aimed to identify trajectories of body mass index (BMI) for elderly Chinese adults, evaluate the impact of BMI trajectories on the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among normoglycaemic elderly and compare the incidence of progression to DM and reversion to normoglycaemia between BMI trajectories among IFG elderly to prevent the occurrence of diabetes.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Materials and Methods</h3>\n \n <p>This study included 148 970 participants. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify BMI trajectories. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the associations between BMI trajectories and the incidence of DM, IFG and reversion to normoglycaemia.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>A total of six patterns of trajectory were identified: minor decrease, sharply decrease, stable, slight increase, moderate increase and significant increase among 148 970 elderly Chinese adults. For normoglycaemic elderly, compared with normal weight-stable trajectory, the trajectories with higher DM risk are the obese-pronounced decrease group, the obese-marginal increase group, and the obese-minor decrease group. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were: 2.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.35, 3.11), 2.55 (95% CI: 2.28, 2.86) and 2.41 (95% CI: 2.24, 2.60), respectively. The trajectories with higher IFG risk are the obese-marginal increase group, the obese-minor decrease group and the overweight-moderate increase group, with adjusted HRs of 2.26 (95% CI: 2.08, 2.45), 1.96 (95% CI: 1.86, 2.07) and 1.91 (95% CI: 1.79, 2.04), respectively.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>Among 148 970 participants, normoglycaemic elderly with increased BMI trajectories showed elevated DM and IFG risks in groups with underweight and normal weight. Regardless of the BMI trajectory, the risk of DM was increased in both the obese and overweight groups. For IFG elderly, the highest DM incidence was presented in the decreasing trajectories.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":158,"journal":{"name":"Diabetes, Obesity & Metabolism","volume":"27 9","pages":"4883-4891"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trajectories of body mass index and diabetes mellitus risk among elderly Chinese adults: A 10-year longitudinal study\",\"authors\":\"Yan Guo PhD, Xiaoyu Zhang MS, Wei Li PhD, Yaxuan Zhou MS, Yuqian Zhang MS, Mei Yang PhD\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/dom.16530\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Aims</h3>\\n \\n <p>This study aimed to identify trajectories of body mass index (BMI) for elderly Chinese adults, evaluate the impact of BMI trajectories on the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among normoglycaemic elderly and compare the incidence of progression to DM and reversion to normoglycaemia between BMI trajectories among IFG elderly to prevent the occurrence of diabetes.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Materials and Methods</h3>\\n \\n <p>This study included 148 970 participants. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify BMI trajectories. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the associations between BMI trajectories and the incidence of DM, IFG and reversion to normoglycaemia.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>A total of six patterns of trajectory were identified: minor decrease, sharply decrease, stable, slight increase, moderate increase and significant increase among 148 970 elderly Chinese adults. For normoglycaemic elderly, compared with normal weight-stable trajectory, the trajectories with higher DM risk are the obese-pronounced decrease group, the obese-marginal increase group, and the obese-minor decrease group. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were: 2.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.35, 3.11), 2.55 (95% CI: 2.28, 2.86) and 2.41 (95% CI: 2.24, 2.60), respectively. The trajectories with higher IFG risk are the obese-marginal increase group, the obese-minor decrease group and the overweight-moderate increase group, with adjusted HRs of 2.26 (95% CI: 2.08, 2.45), 1.96 (95% CI: 1.86, 2.07) and 1.91 (95% CI: 1.79, 2.04), respectively.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Among 148 970 participants, normoglycaemic elderly with increased BMI trajectories showed elevated DM and IFG risks in groups with underweight and normal weight. Regardless of the BMI trajectory, the risk of DM was increased in both the obese and overweight groups. For IFG elderly, the highest DM incidence was presented in the decreasing trajectories.</p>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":158,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Diabetes, Obesity & Metabolism\",\"volume\":\"27 9\",\"pages\":\"4883-4891\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-17\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Diabetes, Obesity & Metabolism\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dom.16530\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Diabetes, Obesity & Metabolism","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/dom.16530","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
Trajectories of body mass index and diabetes mellitus risk among elderly Chinese adults: A 10-year longitudinal study
Aims
This study aimed to identify trajectories of body mass index (BMI) for elderly Chinese adults, evaluate the impact of BMI trajectories on the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG) among normoglycaemic elderly and compare the incidence of progression to DM and reversion to normoglycaemia between BMI trajectories among IFG elderly to prevent the occurrence of diabetes.
Materials and Methods
This study included 148 970 participants. Group-based trajectory modelling was used to identify BMI trajectories. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the associations between BMI trajectories and the incidence of DM, IFG and reversion to normoglycaemia.
Results
A total of six patterns of trajectory were identified: minor decrease, sharply decrease, stable, slight increase, moderate increase and significant increase among 148 970 elderly Chinese adults. For normoglycaemic elderly, compared with normal weight-stable trajectory, the trajectories with higher DM risk are the obese-pronounced decrease group, the obese-marginal increase group, and the obese-minor decrease group. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were: 2.70 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.35, 3.11), 2.55 (95% CI: 2.28, 2.86) and 2.41 (95% CI: 2.24, 2.60), respectively. The trajectories with higher IFG risk are the obese-marginal increase group, the obese-minor decrease group and the overweight-moderate increase group, with adjusted HRs of 2.26 (95% CI: 2.08, 2.45), 1.96 (95% CI: 1.86, 2.07) and 1.91 (95% CI: 1.79, 2.04), respectively.
Conclusions
Among 148 970 participants, normoglycaemic elderly with increased BMI trajectories showed elevated DM and IFG risks in groups with underweight and normal weight. Regardless of the BMI trajectory, the risk of DM was increased in both the obese and overweight groups. For IFG elderly, the highest DM incidence was presented in the decreasing trajectories.
期刊介绍：
Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism is primarily a journal of clinical and experimental pharmacology and therapeutics covering the interrelated areas of diabetes, obesity and metabolism. The journal prioritises high-quality original research that reports on the effects of new or existing therapies, including dietary, exercise and lifestyle (non-pharmacological) interventions, in any aspect of metabolic and endocrine disease, either in humans or animal and cellular systems. ‘Metabolism’ may relate to lipids, bone and drug metabolism, or broader aspects of endocrine dysfunction. Preclinical pharmacology, pharmacokinetic studies, meta-analyses and those addressing drug safety and tolerability are also highly suitable for publication in this journal. Original research may be published as a main paper or as a research letter.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
