探索移动即服务(MaaS)的未来:欧洲城市场景规划的协同设计方法

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY
Valeria Caiati , Soora Rasouli , Helber López
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文通过提出到2030年欧洲移动即服务(MaaS)发展的四种合理情景,为“移动即服务”(MaaS)的论述做出了贡献。与以往的情景研究不同,这些研究通常依赖于案头研究或专注于狭窄的背景,这项研究采用了一种共同设计方法,涉及来自欧洲公共和私营部门的跨学科专家。他们的观点贯穿整个过程,从确定关键的不确定性到构建场景叙述。这种方法有助于全面理解影响MaaS未来的挑战和机遇。由此产生的四种场景(即移动围墙花园、开放数据力量待机、每个人都自己做、开放生态系统)反映了不同的市场竞争配置和API开放如何塑造MaaS的发展轨迹。虽然开放标准和互操作性作为关键的推动因素出现,但它们的影响取决于支持性治理和机构协调的存在。不平衡,如缺乏市场多样性的强大数据框架,或与分散和协调不良的服务进行公开竞争,可能会削弱系统的长期弹性。场景框架为在MaaS开发中预测这些紧张关系和指导战略决策提供了一个结构化的视角。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Exploring the future of Mobility as a Service (MaaS): A co-design approach to scenario planning in European cities
This article contributes to the discourse on Mobility as a Service (MaaS) by presenting four plausible scenarios for its development in Europe up to 2030. Unlike previous scenario studies, which often relied on desk research or focused on narrow contexts, this study employs a co-design methodology that involved interdisciplinary experts from both public and private sectors across Europe. Their perspectives are integrated throughout the process, from identifying key uncertainties to building the scenario narratives. This approach supports a comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities shaping MaaS futures. The four resulting scenarios (i.e. Mobility Walled Garden, Open Data Power in Standby, Everyone on Their Own, and Open Ecosystem) reflect how different configurations of market competition and API openness shape the trajectory of MaaS. While open standards and interoperability emerge as key enablers, their impact depends on the presence of supportive governance and institutional coordination. Imbalances, such as strong data frameworks without market diversity, or open competition with fragmented and poorly coordinated services, can weaken long-term system resilience. The scenario framework offers a structured lens for anticipating these tensions and guiding strategic decisions in MaaS development.
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