External control arm with real world data to assess the effect of semaglutide on chronic kidney disease risk among patients with type 2 diabetes.

Background: Clinical trials have shown semaglutide effective in mitigating risks associated with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease. However, semaglutide's real-world effectiveness and long-term outcomes are not fully established.

Research design & methods: Using 2019-2024 Kythera Labs data, an external control arm was created using criteria identified in the FLOW clinical trial. Primary outcomes were major kidney disease events (kidney failure onset and ≥ 50% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate from baseline). Propensity score matching and Cox regression were used to determine risk-adjusted outcomes.

Results: The control arm (n = 896,257) was compared with the clinical trial cohort (n = 1,766). After propensity score matching on age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities, semaglutide treatment was associated with a 26% reduction in primary event risk compared with the comparator group (702 vs 1,068 events; HR: 0.74; 95% CI, 0.67-0.81), consistent with the 24% risk reduction observed in the clinical trial.

Conclusion: Semaglutide treatment was linked to a significantly lower risk of clinically relevant renal outcomes. Our findings provide robust real-world evidence that supports the FLOW trial results regarding the renoprotective effects of semaglutide, highlighting its promise as an effective therapeutic option for managing renal complications.