Salinity inundation, profitability, and rice farming exits in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam

We analyze how salinity affects rice profitability and land use in the Vietnam Mekong Delta with a 3-year data set from 758 rice-producing households. Our findings reveal a substantial impact of salinity exposure on rice profits at the field level, with high salinity reducing average profits by over 75%. Additionally, declines in expected profitability due to salinity contribute significantly to farmer exits from rice production, especially when anticipated profits drop below 20 million VND per hectare. Further, profit expectations appear to be adjusted based on salinity impacts both in the most recent cropping season and from past extreme salinity events.