反驳:非参数识别是不够的,但随机对照试验是足够的。

Observational studies Pub Date : 2025-04-11 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.1353/obs.2025.a956844
P M Aronow, James M Robins, Theo Saarinen, Fredrik Sävje, Jasjeet S Sekhon
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们感谢编辑组织了一场多样而广泛的讨论,我们感谢评论员们详细而深思熟虑的评论。大多数评论者对随机实验及其在现代实证实践中的作用提供了更广泛的观点。我们认为这种更广泛的观点是重要的,这些评论是对我们在论文中提出的一些狭隘观点的补充。然而,我们认为这些狭隘的观点具有重大意义,我们认为在这里简要地概括一下是有益的。当从业者的目标是估计有界潜在结果的平均值(例如,在至少一个连续协变量调整后,已知可忽略性和正性都保持不变的情况下,二元结果的平均治疗效果)时,以下陈述是正确的:•如果倾向得分已知,例如在随机对照试验(RCT)中,存在一致的根n一致且渐近正态的简单估计量。基于这些估计的置信区间是有限样本有效的,它们的宽度以根n的速率收缩。•如果倾向得分未知,例如在观察性研究中,则既不存在统一一致的估计量,也不存在统一的(即诚实的)大样本置信区间,其宽度随样本量而缩小。为了实现这些特性,从业者必须对结果的倾向得分函数或条件期望函数施加不可检验的假设。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Rejoinder: Nonparametric identification is not enough, but randomized controlled trials are.

We thank the editor for organizing a diverse and wide-ranging discussion, and we thank the commentators for their detailed and thoughtful remarks. Most of the commentators provide broader perspectives on randomized experiments and their role in modern empirical practice. We believe this broader perspective is important, and the comments serve as complements to the somewhat narrow points we made in our paper. However, we believe these narrow points are of great consequence, and we find it useful to briefly recapitulate them here. When a practitioner aims to estimate averages of bounded potential outcomes (e.g., the average treatment effect on a binary outcome) in a setting where both ignorability and positivity are known to hold after adjusting for at least one continuous covariate, the following statements are true: • If the propensity score is known, such as in a randomized controlled trial (RCT), there exist simple estimators that are uniformly root-n consistent and asymptotically normal. Confidence intervals based on these estimators are finite-sample valid and their widths shrink at a root-n rate. • If the propensity score is not known, such as in an observational study, there exist neither uniformly consistent estimators nor uniform (i.e., honest) large-sample confidence intervals whose widths are shrinking with the sample size. To achieve these properties, the practitioner must impose untestable assumptions on either the propensity score function or the conditional expectation function of the outcomes.

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